759
FNUS28 KWNS 132202
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period begins with mid-level troughing in
place over the west CONUS coast and broad ridging in place over the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. By Day 4/Sunday, ridging builds
back westward over much of the Intermountain West. By Day 5/Monday,
models begin to diverge, though the general consensus is for a
shortwave trough to progress through the flow and impinge on the
northern CA coast that afternoon. However, differences in the
amplitude of this small disturbance will result in some uncertainty
as to the sensible surface weather as it passes overhead. By the
time Day 6/Tuesday arrives, larger uncertainties amongst forecast
guidance are presented with a mid-level trough strengthening near
the Pacific Northwest. On Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday, a more
significant mid-level trough is expected to move onshore and
progress across the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS. However,
significant differences remain between forecast guidance as to the
amplitude and speed of this system as it moves eastward.

...Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday...
The aforementioned shortwave trough will provide lift amid
sufficient instability to generate probabilities of isolated morning
and afternoon thunderstorms over portions of central OR on Day
3/Saturday. Precluding this threat are the two days of preceding
thunderstorm activity on Day 1/Thursday and Day 2/Friday. Thus,
additional probabilities may be needed in future outlook cycles if
storms trend drier and/or less-than-forecast precipitation is
received leading up to Day 3/Saturday. Additional chances for
thunderstorms are possible again on Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday
over northern CA and southern/central OR. While the likelihood of
thunderstorm occurrence is currently low and uncertain due to the
nature of the aforementioned pattern evolution, so is the preceding
precipitation accumulation, particularly across portions of central
OR.

...Day 6/Tuesday through Day 7/Wednesday...
There are initial signs of coincident dry and windy conditions over
portions of western/northern Great Basin on Day 6/Tuesday and Day
7/Wednesday. Should the slower end of the forecast guidance spectrum
come to fruition regarding the progression of the aforementioned
mid-level trough early next week, the pattern would support a
tightening surface pressure gradient amid above-normal temperatures,
promoting deep-mixing and gusty southerly flow from central CA
through far southwestern MT for at least a day if not two depending
on the resilience of the ridge centered over the southern High
Plains.

..Stearns.. 08/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$