178
FNUS28 KWNS 222108
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
An unseasonably deep, longwave trough will continue to traverse the
Midwest and eastern CONUS through at least mid next week, while an
upper ridge slowly begins to breakdown over the Southwest. A strong
cold front will surge southward early next week over the eastern
half of CONUS, making it as far south as northern FL by Day
6/Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase along this front
through next week.

...Day 3/Sunday...
Increasing monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the ridge
is expected to slowly shift northward from southern CA into more of
the Great Basin and OR. At least one mid-level perturbation and
orographic ascent within this moisture plume, combined with elevated
instability, will aid in the development of a mix of dry and wet
thunderstorms. Although some of this region will have experienced an
increase in fuel moisture via recent rainfall, isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will remain possible especially where
ERC percentiles are still high across portions of the Great Basin.

...Day 4/Monday...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on the western and
northwestern fringes of the ridge, as a Pacific shortwave trough
approaches. Mid to upper-level heights will slowly fall over the
northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest as this occurs. Forecast
profiles suggest moisture will be deep enough by this time for most
of this activity to be wet, although a few isolated dry lightning
strikes will remain possible along and east of the Cascades where
lower PWATs are anticipated. A low probability area was considered
here, but confidence in the coverage of dry strikes is not high
enough at the moment.

..Barnes.. 08/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$