


Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
799 FNUS28 KWNS 182042 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A mid/upper-level tough is forecast to deepen across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the evolution of the trough is somewhat uncertain, largely due to inter/intra-model variability. Though, many recent solutions now suggest some form of splitting with a portion of the trough ejecting across the northern Rockies and another becoming cutoff (or redeveloping) off/near the coast of California/Oregon through the remainder of the week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Increasing mid-level winds - associated with the aforementioned trough - will promote a broadening area of dry/breezy southwesterly flow Day 3/Sunday across portions of the northern Great Basin, far northeastern California, southeastern Oregon, and southwest Montana. At this time, locally critical conditions appear most likely across wind-prone areas of the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Fire weather conditions are forecast to shift a bit southward while also increasing in coverage and intensity Day 4/Monday, as the aforementioned trough continues to deepen. While an area of critical fire weather conditions appears probable, relatively poor run-to-run model consistency precludes increasing critical probabilities to 70% at this time. Dry/breezy conditions are forecast to linger into Day 5/Tuesday across the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should promote lighter surface winds and locally elevated fire weather conditions. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday across portions of northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$