Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
072 FNUS28 KWNS 152123 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift quickly eastward from the Central Plains Day 3/Monday, across the Midwest Day 4/Tuesday, and then offshore over the Atlantic by early Day 5/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a deeper mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore across the West Day 3/Monday before gradually progressing eastward across the Southwest through much of the forecast period. Meanwhile, associated lee surface cyclogenesis is expected Day 3/Monday and again midweek (Day 5/Wednesday or Day 6/Thursday) across the Central Plains. Heavier rainfall is also possible across the Southern Plains with the midweek trough, which may help reduce fuel receptiveness. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern Plains... Dry/breezy conditions are probable Day 3/Monday across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma with the aforementioned deepening surface low across the Central Plains. Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected during the afternoon as breezy west/southwesterly surface winds overlap near-critical RH values and receptive fuels. At this time, the coverage of sustained surface wind speeds exceeding 20 mph amidst critical RH values is too brief/spotty to increase Critical probabilities above 40%. ...Day 3/Monday: Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the southern/central Mid-Atlantic Day 3/Monday. While minimum RH values may be a bit lower than the previous day (Sunday), the current forecast sustained surface wind speeds are below critical thresholds - owing to the surface pressure gradient relaxing - which precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 11/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$