Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
632 FNUS28 KWNS 022050 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level high centered over southern/eastern NV will continue on Day 3/Sunday before breaking down early next week. Simultaneously, as this break down occurs, westerly surface winds will become gusty, especially over the lee slopes adjacent to portions of the northern High Plains - particularly on Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. However, while dead fuel moistures will be drier as a result of this event, the combination of antecedent fuel conditions and wind/RH is currently expected to remain below critical thresholds. After being suppressed by the passing trough over the northern tier of the CONUS, the ridge will build back farther east into the Intermountain West mid to late next week as the pattern remains unsettled. The upper-level high will contribute to easterly flow over southern coastal CA, supporting a stronger than average offshore flow regime. Given the warm and dry conditions preceding and following this event, fuels will remain receptive. The tightening pressure gradient will support breezy (10-20 mph) and gusty (30+ mph) offshore flow amid minimum RHs near 15-20% and well above normal heat over much of the highlighted area. Atypically, the strongest offshore winds are anticipated to occur during the daytime hours on Day 3/Sunday. Thus, 40% probabilities of critical wind/RH remain in the forecast. ..Stearns.. 10/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$