480
FNUS28 KWNS 142151
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over
parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will
gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across
southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather
concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern
becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified
pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support
additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are
unclear.

...Southern CA...
Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning
as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the
upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering
strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical
conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through
D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri.

Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work
week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low.
However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to
strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble
forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event
across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass
intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the
Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of
southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore
winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No
probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for
critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with
upper-level flow and offshore gradients.

..Lyons.. 01/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$