974
FNUS28 KWNS 192141
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
pattern for the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California.
A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
West through early this week as troughing across the northeastern
U.S. amplifies midweek. Model guidance suggests better chances of
dry thunderstorm impacts for the Pacific Northwest on Days
3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets
wrapped up along the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge. On
Day 5/Thursday, an incoming upper trough and influence from tropical
storm Elida are expected to contribute to the breakdown of the upper
ridge. As strong southwest-westerly flow overlaps the northwestern
U.S., a returning dry airmass and gusty winds may encourage
lightning holdovers to emerge where dry fuels exist.

...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday...
The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific Northwest remains
very sensitive to the expected track of a subtropical moisture plume
from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms are forecast for northern
CA and portions of the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday, and
increasing in coverage on Day 4/Wednesday. While forecast PWATs
range from 0.8-1.2", fast storm motions may limit precipitation
efficiency, generating greater ignition potential as the fuelscape
remains receptive. Localized accumulating rainfall is possible with
wetter thunderstorms, especially areas that receive multiple rounds
of rainfall. For this outlook, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities
were introduced on Day 4/Wednesday as extended guidance has trended
towards maintaining a dry boundary layer and ample instability.
Probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as the upper
pattern is better resolved.

...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
Following several days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorm potential,
longer term ensemble guidance suggests a return to dry and breezy
conditions across portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning
Day 5/Thursday. Ensembles suggest the upper trough will strengthen
across the northwestern U.S. on Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, prompting
an expansion of 40% Critical probabilities.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$