652
FNUS28 KWNS 142157
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Day 3/Wednesday...
Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating
eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds
across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in
place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin
and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support
isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub
cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning
ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture
across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions
under heavier rain cores.

...Day 4/Thursday...
Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert
Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly
deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the
Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin,
Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer
prohibiting appreciable rainfall.

...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday...
The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water
values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the
Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions
and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition
potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and
associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific
Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central
WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where
increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return
to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the
Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow.

..Williams.. 07/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$