078
FNUS28 KWNS 152158
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper troughing near the West Coast will wane as the upper ridge
across the central US retrogrades westward by Day 3/Monday, allowing
drier conditions to infiltrate much of the Great Basin and Cascades.
A mid-level short wave arriving early next week along with residual
monsoonal moisture could bring additional thunderstorms to portions
of the Northern Rockies Day 3/Monday, while also promoting dry and
breezy conditions across portions of the northern Great Basin.
Extended guidance indicates a pattern shift late week as eastern
Pacific troughing impinges upon the Northwest, bringing additional
fire weather concerns. Forecast uncertainty increases Day 7/Friday
onward as ensemble spread reduces predictability in the longer term
across the western CONUS.

...Day 3/Monday...
...Central Idaho and the Northern Rockies...
As a mid-level shortwave enters the Northwest, lingering monsoonal
moisture and daytime heating will promote a favorable convective
environment across portions of the Northern Rockies, central ID and
perhaps into northeastern OR on Day 3/Monday. However, preceding
days of showers and thunderstorms and good overnight RH recoveries
could temporarily reduce fuel receptiveness leading up to this
event, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities.

...Northeastern California, southern Oregon and northwestern
Nevada...
The aforementioned shortwave and attendant mid-level speed max will
likely bring dry and breezy conditions to parts of the northern
Great Basin into northeastern CA on Day 3/Monday. A relative minimum
of rainfall has been observed in this area over the last several
days of monsoon-related showers and thunderstorms across the broader
western CONUS. A warming and drying trend is expected with the
arrival of stronger west/southwest winds. Forecast meteorological
conditions amid existing dry fuels will increase fire weather
concerns, where 40% Critical probabilities were maintained.

...Day 4/Tuesday...
...Southern Plains...
Expanding drought and continued above normal 100+ F temperatures
will most likely stay in place through next week across portions of
the Southern Plains. Increasing southerly winds are expected to
evolve south of a nascent Central Plains surface low/trough over
portions of northwest TX and western OK. South winds of 15-20 mph
collocated with low afternoon RH and very dry fuels will bring
enhanced fire weather concerns to the area on Day 4/Tuesday.

...Portions of the Columbia Basin...
A split-flow regime consisting of west-northwesterly flow over
northern WA and southwesterly flow over Oregon will increase winds
in gap flow and terrain favored areas east of the Cascades on Day
4/Tuesday. RH values should decrease to 25% or less amid enhanced
wind gusts of 25-30 mph within an environment that did not receive
accumulating rainfall, despite preceding days of thunderstorm
activity. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced to account for
this threat.

...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday - Northeastern California, southern
Oregon and northwestern Nevada...
As upper ridging expands into the Great Basin late week, an upper
low will progress towards the West Coast and introduce stronger
south-southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest. Despite some
differences in extended guidance, the evolution of upper troughing
depicts a favorable pattern for dry and breezy conditions to overlap
very dry fuels across northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern
NV; thus, 40% Critical probabilities were introduced. In addition,
embedded disturbances within the troughing pattern may increase
thunderstorm potential as monsoonal moisture advects northward.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$