917
FNUS28 KWNS 222200
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad high pressure will remain over the Southwestern U.S. while a
mid-level trough arcs eastward, over the northern periphery of the
emergent upper-ridge, reaching the Upper Midwest by the middle of
next week. A weak mid-level perturbation embedded within overall
southwesterly flow could bring some isolated convection to portions
of the northern Great Basin on Day 3/Monday. Another upper trough
impinges upon the Pacific Northwest Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday,
bringing additional fire weather concerns in the form of breezy and
dry conditions to the Columbia Basin and northern Great Basin. This
trough along with modest mid-level moisture in place across the
northern Rockies could bring a dry thunderstorm threat back into
parts of ID and western MT on Day 5/Wednesday.

...Day 3/Monday...
...Northern Great Basin...
A subtle mid-level wave within southwesterly flow aloft and
lingering monsoon moisture should promote isolated afternoon
convection across the northwestern Great Basin on Day 3/Monday.
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible over dry fuels where
ERC values in the 90-95th percentile remain. A 10 percent dry
thunderstorm risk area persists over southeastern OR, southwestern
ID and northern NV.

...Southern Plains...
West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph, high temperatures in the lower
100s F and afternoon RH reductions of 15-20 percent south of a
frontal boundary should evolve over portions of northwestern TX and
far southwestern OK on Day 3/Monday. This hot, dry and breezy
environment combined with extremely dry fuels will likely bring
elevated fire weather concerns to the area. The northern extent of
the existing 40 percent critical probability area was removed owing
to expected farther south positioning of the frontal boundary.

...Day 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday...
Fire weather concerns will increase across the northwestern U.S. as
the next upper-level trough begins to impact the region. Dry and
breezy conditions are likely to emerge east of the Cascades across
northeastern CA, southeastern OR and adjacent NV on Day
4-6/Tuesday-Thursday under dry southwesterly flow and in the
Columbia Basin beginning on Day 5/Wednesday. High-based
thunderstorms are also expected across the northern Rockies where
sufficient but limited moisture aloft (PWATs in the 0.6-0.9" range),
fast shower/thunderstorm motions and dry fuels will support new
ignitions. A broad 10 percent dry thunderstorm risk area was
introduced for portions of central ID and ID Panhandle into western
MT. Dry and breezy conditions are maintained through Day 6/Thursday,
perhaps of greater magnitude, east of the Cascades and northern
Great Basin as the upper trough and associated stronger mid-level
flow moves solidly into the region. 40% critical probabilities were
initially introduced for this threat but expansion and/or upgrade to
70 percent probabilities could occur for future outlooks.

..Williams.. 08/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$