624
FNUS28 KWNS 302111
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific
Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin
retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day
4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue
quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day
3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact
mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward
from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern
California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving
along the western periphery of the ridge.

...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the
northwest Great Basin...
Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone
portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the
northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated
with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest
coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining
below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding
critical probabilities.

...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the
Northwest...
Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across
portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and
persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level
ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This
may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and
also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires.

Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern
California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day
6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward
and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable
atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the
low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance
regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are
enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the
coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next
week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into
the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes
into better agreement.

..Elliott.. 08/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$