010
FNUS28 KWNS 112157
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
As troughing builds across the western CONUS, high pressure will
gradually translate eastward and settle into the Southeast this
weekend. As a result, hot, dry, and breezy conditions will promote
fire concerns across portions of the southern Plains, and contribute
to the drying of fuels into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As
monsoonal moisture continues to advect northward, daily chances for
thunderstorms are expected throughout the Desert Southwest, Great
Basin, and Colorado Rockies. Upper troughing and embedded
disturbances over the West should encourage thunderstorms and
wetting rain potential across much of the Rocky Mountain chain into
the High Plains.

...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
...Northwestern CONUS...
Troughing will settle over the western CONUS, encouraging monsoonal
moisture to advect northward. Embedded disturbances within
southwesterly to southerly flow aloft amid sufficient instability
will generate 5-15% probabilities of isolated afternoon
thunderstorms across portions of the Northwest. While thunderstorms
will be a mix of wet/dry, given a highly sensitive fuelscape,
lightning ignitions will remain a concern for the foreseeable
future. As such, 10% Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been
adjusted on Day 3/Thursday to overlap areas not likely to receive
plentiful rainfall in the coming days. On Day 4/Friday, 10% Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were introduced across the
Klamath-Siskiyou region where meteorological conditions support
high-based thunderstorms within an area of receptive fuels.
Additional probabilities may be needed in future outlook cycles as
thunderstorm potential continues across the Pacific Northwest
through the weekend.

...Southern High Plains...
High pressure will elongate across the Central U.S. into the
Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday, expanding northward and eventually
centering back over the central/southern Plains late in the forecast
period. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will persist across portions
of western Oklahoma, the TX/OK Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas
where fuels are growing increasingly receptive. As such, 40%
Critical probabilities remain on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$