462
FNUS28 KWNS 142150
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper troughing near the West Coast will wane as the upper ridge
across the central US retrogrades westward by early Day 4/Monday,
allowing drier conditions to infiltrate much of the Great Basin and
Cascades. A mid-level short wave arriving early next week along with
residual monsoonal moisture could bring additional thunderstorms to
portions of the Northern Rockies Day 4/Monday, while also promoting
dry and breezy conditions across portions of the northern Great
Basin. Forecast uncertainty increases Day 6 onward as ensemble
spread reduces predictability in the longer term across the western
U.S. as fuels likely rebound to the drier side from recent monsoon
moisture.

...Day 4/Monday...
...Central Idaho and the Northern Rockies...
The aforementioned short wave moving into the Northwest, lingering
monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will promote a favorable
convective environment across portions of the Northern Rockies,
central ID and perhaps into northeastern OR on Day 4/Monday.
However, preceding days of showers and thunderstorms and good
overnight RH recoveries could temporarily reduce fuel receptiveness
leading up to this event. Although critical probabilities were not
introduced for this outlook, the dry thunderstorm threat will be
monitored for inclusion in future outlooks once assessment of
rainfall distribution becomes clearer.

...Northwestern California, southern Oregon and northwestern
Nevada...
The same short wave and attendant mid-level speed max will likely
bring dry and breezy conditions to parts of the northern Great Basin
into northwestern CA on Day 4/Monday. A relative minimum of rainfall
has been observed in this area over the last several days of
monsoon-related showers and thunderstorms across the broader western
U.S. A warming and drying trend is expected with the arrival of
stronger west/southwest winds. This coupled with existing dry fuels
will increase fire weather concerns, where 40 percent critical
probabilities were introduced for northeastern CA, northwestern NV
and southern OR for Day 4/Monday.

...Day 5/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Expanding drought and continued above normal 100F+ temperatures will
most likely stay in place through next week across portions of the
Southern Plains. Increasing southerly winds are expected to evolve
south of a nascent Central Plains surface low/trough over portions
of the northwest TX and western OK. South winds of 15-20 mph
collocated with low afternoon RH and very dry fuels will bring an
enhanced fire weather concern to the area Day 5/Tuesday, with 40
percent critical probabilities introduced.

..Williams.. 08/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$