228
FNUS28 KWNS 162135
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

...Day 3/Friday...
A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will
bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds  and
dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where
expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread.
Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability
over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the
incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based
thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into
southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon
moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to
bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation
efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great
Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions.

...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday...
A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher
in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and
Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week.
Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon
moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental
Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate
southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain
on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin,
northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent
probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added
to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame.
Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest
will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the
region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns.

...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday...
Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest
trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and
potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits
introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 07/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$