598
FNUS28 KWNS 212104
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

...Discussion...
An upper low will transition into the Great Lakes region and Ohio
Valley on Day 3/Thursday, supporting precipitation chances and much
cooler temperatures along/east of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a
shallow cold front will slowly progress southward through southern
Texas and the Deep South. Hot and mostly dry conditions will
continue across the lower Mississippi Valley through the forecast
period as upper ridging rebuilds over the ArkLaTex, contributing to
forecast ERCs approaching the 90-95th percentile; but, prevailing
light winds should suppress overall fire weather concerns.

Guidance is in general agreement for ridging to build over the
central CONUS late in the workweek as an upper trough evolves across
the Eastern Pacific and impinges upon the Northwest. The overall
pattern indicates stronger southwest winds may return to the
portions of the northern Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and
Northern Rockies on Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday; however, an expected
marginal fuelscape should limit a broader fire weather threat. If
fuels guidance trends drier, critical probabilities may be needed in
future outlook cycles.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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