Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
024 ACUS48 KWNS 110815 SWOD48 SPC AC 110813 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Friday... Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur. ...D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday... Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain. ...D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday... Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. ..Dean.. 08/11/2026