203
ACUS48 KWNS 250826
SWOD48
SPC AC 250824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller
impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states
through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before
another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next
weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the
development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day
6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return.
However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear
with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in
agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no
probabilities were introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026