362
ACUS48 KWNS 300846
SWOD48
SPC AC 300844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the
eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a
surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East
Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the
surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while
impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F
may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger
vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag
the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding
severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook.
Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms
with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds)
may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday.
By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of
moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability,
which may foster isolated severe potential.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025