050
ACUS48 KWNS 140755
SWOD48
SPC AC 140754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Mon...

A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys
toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk
could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally
moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to
remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could
pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if
sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream
instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.

...Days 5-8/Tue-Fri...

Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5
or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across
the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day
7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across
portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the
upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and
surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of
Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic
recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on
trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026