Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
377 ACUS48 KWNS 030949 SWOD48 SPC AC 030948 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Great Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture return is forecast to be limited. In spite of this, weak instability is expected to develop ahead of the trough as it progresses eastward across the central U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon and evening, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. Any severe threat on these two days should remain isolated due to the lack of instability. On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture return is expected to take place across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorm development is currently forecast along the northern edge of a moist airmass, in the Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. A potential will exist for scattered severe storms. However, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the magnitude of any severe threat, and where the greatest threat will be. Some solutions suggest that most of the storms will be located to the north of the strongest instability, which would be problematic for a greater severe threat. At this time, will continue "predictability too low" for Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, the large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances into the Atlantic Coastal States. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon from Georgia northward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An isolated severe threat will be possible, although uncertainty is substantial at this range. The front is forecast to move off the Atlantic Coast on Monday, reducing the potential for thunderstorms across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 11/03/2025