998
ACUS48 KWNS 070901
SWOD48
SPC AC 070859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from
the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to
mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that
an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in
place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday,
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of
the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the
southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected
to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania,
where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate
deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a
severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell
line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will
move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the
instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the
Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be
possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the
instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with
storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However,
predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for
severe storms will be.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is
forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and
unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern
Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although
large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended
time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale
details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026