


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
676 ACUS48 KWNS 140859 SWOD48 SPC AC 140857 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... A large-scale mid-level trough, and an associated cold front are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from late Friday afternoon into the evening along and ahead of the front from the southern Plains northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of much of the front, MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear ranging from 30 to 40 knots. This should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Cells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. On Saturday, moisture advection is forecast to markedly increase ahead of the approaching trough, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F over much of the moist sector. In spite of this, instability will be tempered over parts of the Ozarks by ongoing convection Saturday morning. The models suggest that an axis of moderate instability will develop a bit further west by afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms that develop along and near the instability axis should obtain a severe threat. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of the moist sector, which will contribute to a potential for supercells with wind damage, hail and potentially a tornado threat. Storm mode is still uncertain, and linear mode could become favored relatively early in the event. Under this scenario, wind damage would be the most likely of the three hazards. The severe threat should persist into the overnight period, as an MCS moves eastward through the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection, along with abundant cloud cover, should limit destabilization over much of the moist sector during the day. In spite of this, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas where sufficient surface heating takes place, from parts of northern Florida northward into the southern Appalachians. The severe threat is expected to diminish across the eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday, as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this forecast range. ..Broyles.. 10/14/2025