511
ACUS48 KWNS 040901
SWOD48
SPC AC 040900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal
across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes
into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints
primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.

For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models
indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern
Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along
with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern
Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical
moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming
outlooks as the situation evolves.

..Jewell.. 10/04/2026