055
ACUS48 KWNS 020818
SWOD48
SPC AC 020817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be
minimal.

A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the
northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already
offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the
ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist
across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification
possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a
minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with
little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot
be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the
northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will
depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such,
no areas are currently forecast.

..Jewell.. 10/02/2026