553
ACUS48 KWNS 310851
SWOD48
SPC AC 310849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains
states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the
East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will
precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms
over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping
shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may
develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern
Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the
cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main
limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for
deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front.
Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still
support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the
Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture
return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next
weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader
cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough
favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated
severe risk.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025