990
ACUS48 KWNS 260834
SWOD48
SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern
High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and
upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist
across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to
strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the
Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong
buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of
damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear
possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains,
as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.


...Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday...

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will
be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable
short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into
the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system.  Persistent
low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states
will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern
and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected.
Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however,
some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front
in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for
the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent
forecasts.


...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression
of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central
Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls
overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on
Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that
could be the source of severe storm development in those areas
Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026