603
ACUS48 KWNS 170850
SWOD48
SPC AC 170848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the
evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next
week.  A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the
Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing
across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of
a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S.
border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity.
Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level
troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as
mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi
Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into
the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger
westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.

In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer
mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger
destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/17/2026