718
ACUS48 KWNS 120827
SWOD48
SPC AC 120825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is
forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing
southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day
5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low,
which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley
through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a
strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by
Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental-
polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early
next week.

...Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night...

Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a
seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south
of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The
moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least
modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear
and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the
approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather
appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing
through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At
least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the
subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.


...Day 5/Friday...

As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over
the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with
additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the
front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.


...Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday...

No severe weather is currently expected.

..Mead.. 10/12/2026