321
ACUS48 KWNS 140857
SWOD48
SPC AC 140856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat
from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast
vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the
southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper
large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will
deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS
Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this
system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across
east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are
expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into
southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the
upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur
overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with
only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong,
supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic
profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong
storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central
Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken
and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar
lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri
indicate severe potential will likely remain limited.

Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle
across much of the country during the second half of the forecast
period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2025