587
ACUS48 KWNS 120858
SWOD48
SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become
southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level
moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday
afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place
from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to
northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within
this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern
Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of
the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough
approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central
and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts,
and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern
and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through
the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong
instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and
northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the
afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a
complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid
Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a
tornado threat will be possible.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central
U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in
the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that
instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe
storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning
the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may
be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning
the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north
Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could
develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However,
uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026