137
ACUS48 KWNS 160754
SWOD48
SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Wed-Thu -- Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic...

An amplifying upper pattern is expected mid-week into the weekend,
with troughing developing across the eastern half of the CONUS and
an upper riding across the western half. As the upper trough digs
across the eastern U.S., some severe potential could develop across
the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu.
Building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and stalled
upper troughing will result in a slowly sagging surface front arcing
across the region. With a very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms
are possible, and at least isolated damaging winds could accompany
this activity. However, potential appears too limited at this time
for 15 percent probabilities at the time scale.

...Days 7-8/Sat-Sun -- Northern/Central Plains...

Some severe potential could develop across the Plains during the
weekend on the eastern periphery of the amplified upper ridge.
Northwesterly flow aloft will remain enhanced across the region as
southerly low-level flow on the back side of the Great Lakes surface
high transports rich boundary layer moisture across the region. It
is uncertain if capping will preclude thunderstorm development, but
if any shortwave impulses migrate through northwesterly flow aloft,
some severe risk could develop.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026