050
ACUS48 KWNS 280745
SWOD48
SPC AC 280743

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed -- Central CONUS...

A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western
U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is
forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and
slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days
6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is
forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly
eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop
across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given
increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front,
in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large
spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the
evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared
to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not
show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends
bear watching over the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2026