034
ACUS48 KWNS 150844
SWOD48
SPC AC 150842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an
initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern
Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of
the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend.
 But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has
suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution
across much of North America has become more unclear due to model
spread.  In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak
split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for
substantive surface cyclogenesis.  Barring appreciable change, the
potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still
appears low through at least early next week.

..Kerr.. 09/15/2026