595
ACUS48 KWNS 160858
SWOD48
SPC AC 160856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal
surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity
through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving
frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern
Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong
thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening.  This
may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak
larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the
Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the
surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the
frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially
conducive to severe weather.  However, with the belt of stronger
lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse
tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the
Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain
relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.

Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread
among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution
increases.  However, even among the differing solutions, there is
little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized
severe thunderstorm potential.

..Kerr.. 09/16/2026