Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
064 ACUS48 KWNS 150857 SWOD48 SPC AC 150856 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the period, a strong upper ridge is forecast to remain over the East. An upper trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday/D4 and Wednesday/D5, with most of the energy moving into eastern Canada thereafter. To the west, only a weak upper trough is forecast. Thunderstorms will be possible from MN southwestward into the central Plains on Tuesday/D4 along a cold front, and some severe threat appears likely as the stronger midlevel southwesterlies extend from MN into NE. Instability will begin to be limited by warming temperatures aloft, but ample low-level moisture will remain ahead off the cold front with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common. Front-parallel flow and a progressive cold front will likely yield areas of damaging wind potential, and a 15% area has been introduced near the surface low over northern Minnesota. Severe storms chances are forecast to lessen by Wednesday/D5 over the Plains/Upper MS Valley as the stronger winds aloft shift out of the area. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024