705
ACUS48 KWNS 170908
SWOD48
SPC AC 170907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

An upper trough over the Four Corners vicinity will eject
east/northeast into the Plains on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread portions of OK/TX toward the Ozarks
as this occurs. Warm advection ahead of the trough, coincident with
a weakening southerly low-level jet, will result in widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the region early Thursday. This may
temper destabilization despite rich boundary layer moisture.
Meanwhile, a surface low will modestly deepen near the OK/KS border,
and a north-south oriented cold front draped across west TX will
develop eastward through the period, with a warm front extending
west-east across central MO/southern IL. These boundaries may focus
some risk for stronger storms within a weak to moderately unstable
airmass. However, the magnitude of the severe risk still remains
uncertain given potential for widespread and possibly heavy
rainfall, somewhat weak low-level flow, and the weakening of the
upper trough as it shifts east/northeast during the evening. Severe
probabilities may become necessary is subsequent outlooks, but
uncertainty remains too high to include a 15 percent delineation at
this time.

...Day 5/Fri - Mid/Lower MS and OH/TN Valley vicinity...

The surface cold front will continue to develop east/southeast
across the region on Friday/Friday night. Some low-end severe
potential could persist given rich boundary layer moisture and at
least modest buoyancy ahead of the front. However, persistent
rainfall and a weakening upper trough with veering/boundary-parallel
deep-layer flow will likely limit storm intensity.

...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...

Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the period and
forecast confidence is low. However, most guidance depicts some
version of an upper trough/low over the Southwest ejecting east
toward the Plains, but the differences in timing/intensity, etc
limit predictability. Some increase in severe potential could return
to portions of the southern Plains depending on how this potential
trough evolves and guidance trends will be monitored.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2025