117
ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a
surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening
surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it
advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected
across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will
strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for
storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail
may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely
exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but
probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this
time.

...Day 5/Wed - East Coast...
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints
will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front.
Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas
and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind
field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.

High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern
CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather
potential.

Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which
could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across
portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025