907
ACUS48 KWNS 100856
SWOD48
SPC AC 100854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the
north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on
Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place
from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio
Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will
make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and
evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level
shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern
Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may
be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon.
Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the
central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms
may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the
central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday,
considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning
the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great
to add a threat area.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast
to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to
move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This
boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each
afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the
70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support
an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists
concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability
is low at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026