788
ACUS48 KWNS 090926
SWOD48
SPC AC 090925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX
to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this
period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and
Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to
timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints
will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.

Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the
Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf
Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML
guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the
current forecast strength and track of the associated surface
cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end
potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the
aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic
environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes
15 percent severe delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026