642
FXUS63 KDDC 070935
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
435 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue today and Tuesday.

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

WV imagery indicates an upper level ridge centered across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side
trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Although relatively dry conditions will dominate across much
of the area early in the period, minimal thunderstorm chances
(<20%) cannot be ruled out near the Colorado line early in the
period as the SREF indicates the aforementioned ridge axis
shifting slowly east into the Central Plains, giving way to a
southwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near
the surface, prevailing south- southeasterlies will support
pooling moisture ahead of a lee side trough axis slowly
approaching the Colorado/Kansas line, resulting in modest MUCAPE
values in excess of 500 to 1000 J/kg. As a result, diurnally
driven thunderstorm development is forecast across eastern
Colorado in vicinity of the trough axis late this afternoon in
conjunction with H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the Southern
Rockies. Storms are expected to drift east-northeast toward the
Kansas line during the evening. This is hinted at by the latest
HREF pointing to only 10 to 20% probability of 6-hr QPF
exceeding 0.1 of an inch in west central/extreme southwest
Kansas by late evening. A similar set up exists Tuesday, though
storm chances (30-50%) pick up a bit out west as an upper level
shortwave trough transitions east through the Dakotas, sending
an attendant cold front southeast into extreme western Kansas
overnight.

Unseasonably hot temperatures are likely again today as
prevailing southerlies reinforce a much warmer air mass across
the area with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in
central Kansas to around 30C near the Colorado line. Look for
widespread afternoon highs in the mid/upper 90s(F) with the HREF
painting a better than 80% probability of temperatures
exceeding 95F for much of the area with highs potentially
topping 100F in central/south central Kansas where there is a
50-70% probability of reaching the century mark. Similar
temperatures are forecast Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with
VFR/SKC, and limited amounts of mid/high clouds. After 15z Mon,
elevated to strong south winds are expected at all airports,
gusting 25-30 kts. South winds will diminish by 03z Tue.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner