928
FXUS63 KDDC 280552
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog possible this morning west and north of the
  Dodge City area. This dense fog will dissipate by or shortly
  after 10am.

- An extended period of accumulating rainfall is still on track
  to impact southwest Kansas from early Tuesday through Thursday
  night. Heavy rainfall possible, especially west of highway 83.

- Given improving confidence of the potential for heavy rainfall
  across portions of far southwest Kansas on Tuesday there is
  now a Flood Watch for flash flooding for Stevens, Morton,
  Stanton, Grant and Hamilton counties from Tuesday morning
  through early Wednesday.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Earlier this evening an upper ridge was located over the
Central Plains while our next, significant, upper level
trough/low was located near the coast of California. Hurricane
Polo was located just west of Baja California. Hurricane Polo
remains forecast to weaken after it makes landfall on the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula late Monday and by
Tuesday night is forecast to be moving across southern New
Mexico and extreme western Kansas. As remnants of Hurricane Polo
moves northeast toward New Mexico/West Texas towards mid week
the California upper level trough will move across the southwest
United States. Ahead of this developing storm system to our
southwest there will be an significant increase in moisture to
southwest Kansas due to southerly moisture return from the Gulf
combined with tropical moisture that will be accompanying the
remnants of Polo. PWAT values are forecast to be near 100% of
climatology across southwest Kansas by Tuesday. This abundant
moisture when combined with the approaching upper level storm
system from the southwest will favor an extended period of
widespread measurable rainfall to southwest Kansas from early
Tuesday through Thursday. Heavy rainfall potential for portions
of extreme southwest Kansas will also be possible and is high
enough that the weather prediction central has issued an
moderate risk of excessive rainfall. This means that there is at
least a 40% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
within 25 miles of a point.

Rainfall Totals. There is still some uncertainty on rainfall
totals from this upcoming even given that models continue to
indicated subtle differences in timing and track of the upper
trough/low and how it interacts with the remnants of Polo. Still
taking these uncertainties into account it appears all of
southwest Kansas will likely (>60%) receive greater than 1.5
inches from this upcoming event before the rain tapers off on
Thursday night. This morning all the ensembles to various
degrees are now focusing on the area with the highest rainfall
potential to be located west and north of the Dodge City given
the longer period of rainfall potential and location/track of
the upper level deformation zone and moisture associated with
the upper low/trough as it moves from New Mexico on Wednesday
into Central Plains and weakens by Thursday night. As a result
this is why there is a greater than 60% chance at this time for
rainfall totals from this event to be greater than 2.5 inches
along and west of highway 83 and north of the I-70 corridor. It
is also why a flood watch for flash flooding has been issued
for portions of extreme southwest Kansas from Tuesday morning
through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere across southwest and south
central Kansas the rainfall totals are expect to be less but do
not be fooled because ensembles still indicated at 30% to 60%
chance for rainfall totals to exceed 1.5 inches in these
locations as well. At this time anyone with plans mid week
should be prepared for an extended period of soaking rainfall
with period of heavy rainfall being possible. Water issues could
develop, especially west of highway 83 and near the I-70
corridor.

Southwest Kansas prior to the onset of this rainfall late
Monday night through Thursday night can look forward to one more
dry day with seasonal temperature today. Early morning status
and fog is expected to dissipate between 10am and noon. The fog 18
early this morning may become dense in a areas west and north of
Dodge City given the moist upslope flow that will be present.
After good collaboration with our neighbors we have decided to
hold off on a dense fog advisory at this time but do not be
surprised if a dense fog advisory is issued later this morning.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Flight conditions will start out as VFR. A low stratus deck or
even fog will be possible in the morning with IFR conditions.
Some of the models were showing the potential for dense fog for
KGCK and KLBL in the morning. Confidence on this right now is
not particularly that high. The 12Z TAFs might have to be
adjusted if fog trends become more clear later through the
overnight hours. Otherwise, flight conditions will return back
to VFR as fog and/or stratus starts to erode. Winds will remain
light SE to S 5-10 kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for KSZ061-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden