156
FXUS63 KDDC 121725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return Thursday night.

- Hot temperatures again Thursday, though an advancing weak cold
  front may keep afternoon highs topped off in the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

WV imagery indicates upper level ridging transitioning east through
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist early in the
period with the SREF indicating an upper level ridge transitioning
slowly east into the Central Plains Thursday, giving way to a
southwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. The overall
pattern becomes more active Thursday evening into early Friday as a
southwesterly flow aloft slowly develops in wake of departing ridge
aloft. Near the surface, a developing low in southeast Colorado this
evening is projected to push slowly into southwest Kansas early
Thursday morning ahead of an approaching weak cold front that is
expected to stall out somewhere across southwest/central Kansas
by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, a return flow will enhance
moisture advection into central Kansas and wrap around the low
into western Kansas, pushing surface dewpoints well up into the
60s(F) and providing ample instability. This will set the stage
for thunderstorm development late afternoon/early evening as H5
vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave lifts
northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the Western High
Plains, interacting with the aforementioned stalled boundary.
The latest HREF suggests the best chance for thunderstorms to be
across west central Kansas into extreme southwest Kansas where
there is a 20-40% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an
inch by late Thursday evening. A similar setup is forecast
Friday with little movement to the stalled boundary expected.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast again tonight for south
central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas, but a weak cold
front moving in from the northwest may help drop temperatures back
near seasonal levels in west central Kansas and extreme southwest
Kansas. This is supported by the HREF showing a 70-90% probability
of temperatures slipping below 70F in our west/northwest. Lows
generally down into the 70s(F) can be expected elsewhere. The front
will also have an effect on afternoon highs out west where the HREF
paints a 20-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 90F while
pointing to a 40-60% probability of topping 100F in south central
Kansas. A similar temperature range is expected Friday with little
movement to the stalled boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Thursday. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt
through late afternoon will begin to subside generally after 00-02Z
as a lee side trough in eastern Colorado begins to edge east into
extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-
081-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson