144
FXUS63 KDDC 171702
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Among storm potential Tuesday, a strong MCS is expected across
  western/central Kansas late in the day with all hazards
  possible including very damaging winds on the higher end

- A cooler Wednesday before the end of the week warms towards triple
  digit highs

- A moderate to major heat risk Friday and Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Storms from the overnight are exiting the area slowly through the
eastern counties. It will now be a race to see how quickly the
atmosphere can recover. It helps Tuesday`s storm potential somewhat
that the storms stayed confined to the northern and eastern
counties; chances are hindered though by how long the storms in
central/northwestern Kansas. The battle between the lingering CAP
and warming air will be integral to watch through the morning.
Southeasterly winds continue to pump warmer, moist air into SW
Kansas. Ensembles have held firm that the surface low pressure
system will eject across Kansas on Tuesday. This coincides well with
a small mid-level shortwave. Assuming any residual cap can be
overcome by the shortwave the ingredients are very favorable for a
high-end wind event. NAMNST forecast soundings have CAPE >4000 J/kg,
mid-level lapse rates >9 C/km, deep shear >50 KTs, DCAPE >1500 J/kg,
and low-level SRH >300 m2/s2. As the case with all the storms within
the pattern, spatial uncertainty is the largest. The NAMNST for
example has the main line forming and strengthening in central
Kansas, which would leave much of the forecast area out of the
action. The HRRR has a solution that looks more like two clusters of
storms with the main MCS like system initiating near the KS/CO/NE
border and moving southeastward. Most other CAMs fall somewhere in
between the two possibilities provided. It should be noted that
NAMNST has followed this pattern better the last couple days with
the HRRR being overdone. A repeat would likely leave most of SW
Kansas dry. If not nearly the whole forecast area can expect storms
with damaging winds. When the MCS reaches full strength, it is
expected to be capable of widespread 80+mph wind gusts which can
mimic weak tornado damage. A notable hail and tornado can not be
ruled out, especially if any supercells can maintain themselves
ahead of the line and after the LLJ kicks up.

Behind the low/MCS, the winds are forecast to shift from the north
providing a modest blast of cooler air. This will help keep
Wednesday cooler and drier. Highs are expected to be the coolest of
the week with primarily 80s temperatures. This leads off a very dry
stretch forecasted to last at least through the weekend. After
Wednesday, another wind shift is expected to push winds back out of
the south/southwest quickly warming the CWA with WAA. This will set
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to gradually warm back up and push
highs up near and passed the triple digit mark. Both Friday and
Saturday have a moderate-major heat risk. Ensembles have nearly all
of the CWA at or above a 50% chance for >100 degree highs,
especially north and west of Dodge City. Heat can affect everyone,
not just vulnerable communities. Be sure to take breaks to cool off
and hydrate.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Low to mid level clouds continue across southwest Kansas after
an outflow boundary earlier this morning passed through central
Kansas. MVFR flight category for LBL, GCK, and DDC are expected
through 21Z.

For HYS...a second outflow boundary is moving through central
Kansas and could lead to VCTS between 18-21Z.

For DDC...as the outflow boundary moves south and east we could
see VCTS near the terminal between 21Z-03Z. The better
confidence of storms will be south and east of DDC.

Post storm clouds should continue through at least 03Z which
could lead to MVFR flight category for all terminals and then
after 03Z we should see VFR flight category for the rest of the
time period.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Tatro