167
FXUS63 KDDC 172245
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
545 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms possible (15%) this evening near Medicine
  Lodge but dry elsewhere

- Strong cold front arrives Saturday, bringing gusty north winds
  up to 40 mph and significantly drier air

- Risk for areas of frost Sunday morning mainly along and west
  of US Highway 83

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Water vapor imagery from this afternoon reveals a positively tilted
upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Desert
Southwest.  Although past morning upper air data reveals 100+ kt
upper jet winds found on the back side of this wave over the
Northern Rockies...this wave is progressing eastward without closing
off into much of a circulation. Closer to the surface, an
associated Pacific cold front stretching from the western Great
Lakes into the Southern High Plains has slowed to a near stall
over central Kansas this afternoon with Medicine Lodge still on
the warm side of the boundary. Ahead of this front decent
boundary layer moisture via dewpoints near 60 along with temps
rising into the 80s is triggering modest MLCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range although with inhibition remaining relatively
strong...only some scattered shallow CU exists. Behind this
front much drier and hence stable air is in place via dewpoints
in the 30s existing at locations such as Scott City and
Garden City.

This evening to overnight will see the aforementioned upper trough
slide slightly farther east with locations such as Medicine Lodge
finally seeing the cold front move east of the area.  The main
question is whether this will allow any storms to develop across
Barber County before drier air moves into that region. Based on
current trends mentioned above via stronger inhibition and lack
of CU...it is not looking the best but can`t completely rule
out an isolated storm or two in the mid to late evening. Deep
layer shear will be sufficient for cell organization but limited
instability will keep any storm that can form...below severe
levels. Otherwise, the remainder of the night will see
subsidence building into the region with associated surface
high pressure allowing for light winds under a clear sky.

Attention then shifts toward late Saturday morning to early
afternoon as the previously referenced 100+kt jet streak dives into
the existing upper trough axis. This will push a much stronger cold
front through the region on Saturday with gusty north winds
resulting. Given strong isallobaric response via decent pressure
rises, the NBM 75th percentile winds with gusts up to 40 mph look
the most reasonable for tomorrow.  The other component to this
frontal passage will be much drier air invading the region with
dewpoints dropping into the 20s by late afternoon. Although
initially this doesn`t have much meaning...as subsidence builds into
the region with associated surface high pressure creating light
winds overnight...the question turns to potential for some
frost Sunday morning west of a Wakeeney to Garden City to
Elkhart line. While 50th percentile lows from the NBM are in the
mid to upper 30s in this area...sense the 10-25th percentile
values in the lower 30s are more realistic given very dry air.
This may result in some areas of frost Sunday morning but
confidence in that happening is not high enough at this point to
issue any frost headlines.

Remainder of Sunday will then be a transition day ahead of another
strong shortwave and associated cold front surging through the area
Monday morning.  Tuesday morning may see another round of patchy
frost near the KS...CO state line as light winds and dry air set the
table for a cool morning (at least 15% probability of temps at or
below 35 near state line). After a couple of quiet weather days
on Tuesday and Wednesday...ensemble means show a southern
stream wave and potential closed mid level low rolling into the
region Thursday into Friday. Although the probability of
exceeding even a tenth of an inch is not the highest (generally
10% or less) this will likely be the next reasonable threat for
measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Weak and
variable winds will start the period with clear skies behind the
frontal passage. Around 13Z winds will strengthen out of the
north/northwest around 20 KTs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJohnson
AVIATION...KBJ