070
FXUS63 KDDC 250920
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
420 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot afternoon temperatures are expected this
  weekend and into next week.

- Heat advisories will be required the next several days, with
  any extreme heat warnings favoring the eastern zones of
  central Kansas.

- Dry weather will prevail across southwest Kansas through the
  last week of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A strong upper level ridge will persist across the high plains
through Tuesday. The various ensemble means continue to
indicate 700 and 850mb temperatures in the extreme upper end of
the climatological spectrum, similar to those of 2011 and 2012.
The only difference is that soils were drier in those years and
there was much less greeunp due to drought. This may keep
temperatures from reaching to levels of those years. However,
some locations could reach 107-109 Monday. Expect very high heat
indices today due to the combination of heat and high moisture
content. By Sunday and Monday as we dry out due to deep mixing,
it will be hotter but drier so that heat indices remain about
the same. An extreme heat warning is in effect for Barber County
for today with a heat advisory for the remainder of western
Kansas. A heat advisory is in effect for Sunday and Monday, and
this may need an upgrade to an extreme heat warning across
central Kansas depending on exactly how hot it gets and how much
the air dries out.

A strong shortwave trough in northwest flow across the Great
Lakes will push a cold front into the central plains by Monday
evening despite the very high 500mb heights. This will result
in lower temperatures but much higher humidity, with dewpoints
near or above 70 degrees. Thunderstorms are possible as early as
Monday evening along the front across west central Kansas and
the I-70 corridor. Given the non-existent mid to upper level
winds, these will be mainly sub-severe. But when it`s 105-108
degrees on Monday, it won`t take a very robust t-storm to get
marginally severe winds up to 60 mph. The front will remain
stalled out across southwest Kansas through next week, with
hotter conditions along the KS/OK line and cooler but humid
conditions along I-70. The exact location of the front will
determine heat and humidity levels as well as t-storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with VFR/SKC and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>089.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner