234
FXUS63 KDDC 102210
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend can be expected through this weekend, with
  temperatures possibly reaching near 100 degrees by Sunday and
  Monday.

- There are chances for t-storms by early and mid next week,
  along with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A return to south winds is expected over the next 24 hours as
the mid level flow becomes zonal, encouraging lee troughing.
However, an upper level trough traversing the northern plains
will push a weak front through Kansas early Saturday. But this
front will move back north as a warm front Saturday night as
moderate mid level westerly flow develops and again encourages
surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies. This pattern is
favorable for a low level warm plume edging downslope onto the
high plains. As a result, temperatures will likely reach close
to 100 for Sunday and Monday, after topping out in the upper
80s to 90s for Friday and Saturday. The record highs at Dodge
City are 100 for both days.

A small cooldown is possible by Tuesday and Wednesday as
another upper level trough traverses the northern plains and
pushes a weak cold front into Kansas. There are chances of
t-storms along and behind the front Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. The best chance of t-storms is across central Kansas
where the grand ensemble indicates 20-30% chances for .5" or
greater of rain for the Monday night to Tuesday night time
frame.

Temperatures by mid to late next week have considerable
uncertainty as the various ensemble suites differ on the
strength of the upper level ridge over the Deep South and
southern plains. This also has implications on rain chances
given that rich low level moisture would accompany any frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Light southeast winds will become more southerly overnight as
surface pressures begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies
and the surface ridge moves east/southeast of the area. This
south southeasterly upslope flow will draw more humid air into
southwest Kansas and a few of the latest CAMS indicate that
patchy fog or even low ifr/vfr stratus may be possible between
11z and 15z Friday. Guidance indicating a low probability of
this occurring (<30%) so at this time have decided to trend
towards some patchy fog/stratus given these latest CAMS but not
go as low as what a few of these models suggest given low
confidence. After daybreak on Friday the southerly winds will
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range as the trough of low
pressure over eastern Colorado deepens.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert