412
FXUS63 KDDC 082248
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
548 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today during late afternoon a frontal boundary will initiate
  a marginal risk of strong to potentially severe t-storms along
  a Syracuse to Hays line.

- On Wednesday, another round of strong to potentially severe
  t-storms across the Kansas-Oklahoma border bringing a cooldown
  across Southwestern Kansas

- A long term trend shows a cooldown into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

17Z synopsis shows a 5950 upper level high centered in northern
Oklahoma with an upper low in the southern Canadian prairies and a
longwave trough in the northwest CONUS.  A 700 mb shortwave is
located on the Kansas-Colorado border and this wave is above a
surface low and frontal boundary extending from near Lamar, CO
through northwest Kansas.  Winds have increased out of the south
ahead of the front to 15-25 mph and temperatures have warmed into
the 90s.

Tonight the main focus will be on where the frontal boundary stalls
out.  Most CAMs and short term models have the position of the front
roughly along a Syracuse to Hays line.  By late afternoon with the
strong daytime heating and mid level lift from the 700 mb shortwave
we should see widely scattered storms develop in the mid to late
afternoon.  With light winds aloft and not much initial push of the
front with the storms we should see the storms stay mainly along
that Syracuse to Hays line.  DCAPE values are forecast to be in the
1100-1200 range and LCL levels on the forecast skew-t soundings are
suggesting high based storms.  Main threat could be some gusty
downburst winds over 60 mph.  Bulk shear values remain low due to
the lighter winds in the mid level so this should limit the growth
of the hail size in the storms with sub severe hail expected.

Heading into Wednesday the storms should have decent enough cold
pooling along with the wave moving into central Kansas that the
frontal boundary should progress to the south and east and end up
along the Kansas-Oklahoma border by the late afternoon.  Another
developing shortwave should move into southwest Kansas and more
scattered storms are expected to fire up along the front.  Best
opportunity for rain will be mainly along and south of the highway
50 corridor with 40-60% POPs.  Severe weather will once again be
mainly downburst winds over 60 mph as the stronger heating south of
the front combined with the higher based nature of the storms and
DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support stronger winds.  Bulk shear
values should once again be on the lower side and limit the growth
of the hail potential.  With cooler air and more cloud cover the
highs should reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s in our northern
zones to near 100 along the front in the Red Hills region.

Thursday we should have the full effect of the cooler air as the
longwave trough in the northern plains will reinforce winds out of
the east-northeast through the day and cold pooling from the storms
should drop the frontal boundary well south into Oklahoma.  We could
finally see a day where highs only stay in the upper 80s.

Long term ensembles continue to show a digging longwave trough
moving from northwest Canada into the northern plains this
weekend. This is the beginning sign of more relief from the
relentless heat. The first cold front will come into northern
Kansas on Saturday which should knock highs back into the 80s to
lower 90s. A stronger trough and cold front is forecast to come
through Kansas on Monday with hints of highs for next Tuesday
only in the lower to middle 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF period
outside of thunderstorm chances. A line of storms have developed in
the western part of the area. A PROB30 has been included for HYS and
GCK to cover the around 30% chance that the storms move eastward and
impact the terminals. DDC and LBL also have a non-zero chance, but
those chances (5-10%) do not meet criteria. Aside from storms, a
cold front is expected to slowly work eastward through the forecast
area shifting winds sharply. The winds will transition from 10-15
KTs out of the south to 5-10 KTs out of the north.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...KBJ