913
FXUS63 KDDC 290411
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1111 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog possible this morning. Areas with fog may
  delay warming, resulting in cooler highs than compared to non
  foggy areas.

- Remnant tropical moisture and an upper level wave will result
  in scattered rain showers Friday.

- Drier weekend then more unsettled weather Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A frontal boundary is bisecting the FA late this evening. Moist
low level upslope northeasterly flow is occurring on the north
side of this front. This weather pattern is conducive for areas
of dense fog later in the morning. Have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for areas where there is the highest confidence of
FG+. This foggy area will likely delay warming, resulting in
cooler highs than compared to non foggy areas. Have gone with
upper 50s to lower 60s across the western zones, with upper 70s
to lower 80s south of the front and east of the fog. Otherwise,
winds will remain fairly light today. A light NE wind is
expected north of the front and light SE to S wind is expected
south of it across the eastern and southern counties.

Attention then turns to Friday. Remnant tropical moisture will
advect northward across the southern High Plains and closer to
Kansas. Afternoon PWAT values are expected to be greater than
1.00" by Friday afternoon. In addition, an upper level shortwave
trof will move across the greater region during the day. This
will set the stage for scattered rain showers Friday afternoon
and evening. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable. The
highest PWAT values and best low level moisture will likely
remain across the southern and southeastern zones. So amounts
will vary from 0.05 to 0.25" across the northern zones to around
0.50" or even higher near the Oklahoma border. Severe weather is
not expected due to poor lapse rates and meager instability.

Over the weekend, long range models and their ensemble members
indicate shortwave ridging across the high plains. This would
result in a drier forecast just in time for the weekend.
Temperatures look to be mild with highs in the 60s and lows in
the 40s to 50s. Models then indicate another trof developing
across the western United States Monday and then drifting
closer to our region by Monday evening into Tuesday. Ensembles
are not in agreement on the evolution of this second system.
Will it be closed off and deep or will it be a progressive wave?
Regardless, the NBM continues to have pops for the beginning of
the workweek with unsettled weather in the forecast. If the wave
is more deep and closed off, then the potential for higher wind
magnitudes will exist with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Short term models are indicating the potential for areas of
dense fog later this morning north of a frontal boundary. Have
the highest confidence of LIFR conditions for KGCK, KDDC and
perhaps KLBL. KHYS might be far enough east of the fog. Cigs and
vis should slowly improve towards 16Z-18Z with VFR conditions
after. Winds will be NE north of a sfc boundary and SE/S south
of it today and could even become variable at times. Fog may be
possible Friday morning, but this is, of course, outside the TAF
pd.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ to noon CDT /11 AM
MDT/ Thursday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden