551
FXUS63 KDDC 171003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Among storm potential Tuesday, a strong MCS is expected across
  western/central Kansas late in the day with all hazards
  possible including very damaging winds on the higher end

- A cooler Wednesday before the end of the week warms towards triple
  digit highs

- A moderate to major heat risk Friday and Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Storms from the overnight are exiting the area slowly through the
eastern counties. It will now be a race to see how quickly the
atmosphere can recover. It helps Tuesday`s storm potential somewhat
that the storms stayed confined to the northern and eastern
counties; chances are hindered though by how long the storms in
central/northwestern Kansas. The battle between the lingering CAP
and warming air will be integral to watch through the morning.
Southeasterly winds continue to pump warmer, moist air into SW
Kansas. Ensembles have held firm that the surface low pressure
system will eject across Kansas on Tuesday. This coincides well with
a small mid-level shortwave. Assuming any residual cap can be
overcome by the shortwave the ingredients are very favorable for a
high-end wind event. NAMNST forecast soundings have CAPE >4000 J/kg,
mid-level lapse rates >9 C/km, deep shear >50 KTs, DCAPE >1500 J/kg,
and low-level SRH >300 m2/s2. As the case with all the storms within
the pattern, spatial uncertainty is the largest. The NAMNST for
example has the main line forming and strengthening in central
Kansas, which would leave much of the forecast area out of the
action. The HRRR has a solution that looks more like two clusters of
storms with the main MCS like system initiating near the KS/CO/NE
border and moving southeastward. Most other CAMs fall somewhere in
between the two possibilities provided. It should be noted that
NAMNST has followed this pattern better the last couple days with
the HRRR being overdone. A repeat would likely leave most of SW
Kansas dry. If not nearly the whole forecast area can expect storms
with damaging winds. When the MCS reaches full strength, it is
expected to be capable of widespread 80+mph wind gusts which can
mimic weak tornado damage. A notable hail and tornado can not be
ruled out, especially if any supercells can maintain themselves
ahead of the line and after the LLJ kicks up.

Behind the low/MCS, the winds are forecast to shift from the north
providing a modest blast of cooler air. This will help keep
Wednesday cooler and drier. Highs are expected to be the coolest of
the week with primarily 80s temperatures. This leads off a very dry
stretch forecasted to last at least through the weekend. After
Wednesday, another wind shift is expected to push winds back out of
the south/southwest quickly warming the CWA with WAA. This will set
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to gradually warm back up and push
highs up near and passed the triple digit mark. Both Friday and
Saturday have a moderate-major heat risk. Ensembles have nearly all
of the CWA at or above a 50% chance for >100 degree highs,
especially north and west of Dodge City. Heat can affect everyone,
not just vulnerable communities. Be sure to take breaks to cool off
and hydrate.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

To start the TAF period, DDC, GCK, and HYS are experiencing low
ceilings bordering on lowered flight conditions. After the ceilings
raise, VFR will prevail until around 22z where a couple of lines of
storms are expected. Some uncertainty remains on where the storms
will pass through specifically, but there is high confidence in
storms overall. These storms may lower flight conditions with both
lowered visibilities and lowered ceilings. VFR conditions are
expected to return once the storms and lower cloud cover exists the
sites. Additionally during the period, winds are expected to shift
from southerly to from the north.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ