586
FXUS63 KDDC 031000
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temporarily much warmer Wednesday, followed by a weak cold
  front Wednesday evening.

- Limited thunderstorm coverage east/southeast of Dodge City
  Wednesday afternoon/evening, some of which may be severe.

- A much stronger cold front is expected Friday morning,
  reducing Friday afternoon temperatures to the 60s.

- Some of the first 40s of the young fall season expected
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Clear quiet and calm across SW KS as of midnight. Expect
temperatures in the 50s at sunrise, with no stratus or fog
for a change.

All models show very strong warming Wednesday, with a net
warming of about +10C at 850 mb over Tuesday. This combined with
full sunshine, westerly downslope and prefrontal compression
will send temperatures soaring into the lower 90s Wednesday
afternoon. Model consensus is for the expected cold front to
not arrive along I-70 until about 5 pm. As such, warming in
the prefrontal warm sector is expected to be maximized, as
surface winds gradually veer from SWly to NWly. Cold front will
dive south through SW KS during the 5-9 pm time frame. Increased
north/northeast winds to the 90%ile of the NBM during this time,
or toward the strongest guidance, with gusts near 30 mph.
Strong convergence along the advancing cold front is expected to
encourage thunderstorm development across eastern/southeast
zones this evening. Bulk shear amid NWly midlevel flow will
support organized convection and supercells, but the best
moisture and instability is expected to be shunted eastward into
central Kansas/WFO Wichita`s CWA, where ECMWF, 00z NAM and
various CAMs suggest the best thunderstorm coverage will be.
Marginal 5% severe hail/wind probability from SPC for the
eastern half of the DDC CWA covers the limited severe potential
as the cold front advances this evening.

Weak high pressure surface ridging will settle over SW KS behind
this first cold front Thursday, with noticeable cooling back to
the 80s. The exception to this will be western zones, where
SWly return flow will establish quickly Thursday afternoon,
propelling temperatures back to the lower 90s.

A much stronger cold front remains consistently timed in the
guidance Thursday night/sunrise Friday. Models continue to trend
stronger with this frontal passage, with 00z NAM placing a 10 mb
surface pressure gradient over SW KS at 7 am Friday. Despite the
poorly mixed nocturnal/sunrise timing, north winds will be
stronger than NBM guidance Friday morning. Pressure gradients
will weaken rapidly midday and afternoon Friday, with rapidly
diminishing northeast winds. Friday will be dramatically cooler,
with NAM/GFS in agreement reducing 850 mb temperatures to about
10C. NBM has been correctly trending cooler, with afternoon
temperatures reduced to the upper 60s, but there is room to go
even cooler if clouds hold much of the day as NAM and other
models suggest. Welcome to fall. Any rain showers with this cold
front are expected to be mainly post frontal, which will act to
further suppress temperatures downward. Pops in the low end
chance category look appropriate.

The coolest temperatures so far this young fall season are
expected Saturday morning, as cool 1022 mb surface ridging
settles over the central Plains. Expect sunrise Saturday
temperatures near 50, with upper 40s for the typically colder
valleys, especially where the sky clears. Afternoon
temperatures will show a very gradual warming trend Saturday
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Excellent flying weather will prevail for much of this TAF
period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. Light winds will veer
with a westerly component through Wednesday. A cold front
passage is expected 21z Wed - 00z Thu, with a northeast wind
shift and gusts of 25-27 kts. This frontal passage is expected
to be dry at the airports, with the possible exception of HYS
where a VCTS/CB mention was included around 00z Thu. Northeast
winds will quickly trend light and variable after 06z Thu. Short
term models hint at another round of stratus after 06z Thu, and
began hinting at the end of this TAF period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner