029
FXUS63 KDDC 140549
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another hot afternoon ahead of the next cold front with
  widespread upper 90s/near 100 for highs

- Scattered thunderstorms, some marginally severe, likely along
  a trough axis across mainly far west central Kansas this
  afternoon and evening.

- As the front moves south on Tuesday, the thunderstorm risk
  will shift into central and south central Kansas with a
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Late night water vapor imagery and RAP objective analysis showed
quite a robust shortwave trough centered over Idaho into western
Montana with broad southwest flow in the mid-upper troposphere
across much of the Rockies into adjacent Northern and Central High
Plains. This pattern has shunted the effective North American
Monsoon circulation to the east across much of New Mexico into
Colorado, with the northern portion of the subtropical moist
circulation pattern becoming infused with the polar system moving
Idaho and Montana.

The polar system up north will move across Montana into the western
Dakotas by Monday Night, and an associated polar cold front will
push south across Nebraska into northwestern Kansas by Monday Night.
A sub-1000mb surface low is likely to develop out of a broad leeside
trough, with increasing boundary layer convergence along the lee
trough and especially in vicinity of surface low. Thus, the best
focus for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be out west
across far western Kansas. The majority of CAMs are lined up fairly
well with convective signal all along the surface trough, and using
HREF ensemble probability of Echo Tops > 45 kft would support the
notion for at least marginally severe storms with isolated to widely
scattered 60+ mph wind gusts possible. The strength of the
convection will be tied fairly closely to the diurnal cycle with
severe wind risk diminishing after sunset.

Monday will also likely be the last upper 90s/near 100 degree day
for most of southwest Kansas ahead of the front, as Tuesday forecast
temperatures will be quite a bit lower, especially north of the
Arkansas River (i.e. Dighton highs of 97F Monday, 74F Tuesday). The
front will likely bisect Kansas from southwest to northeast, and by
mid to late afternoon, there should be another round of loosely
organized thunderstorm activity, mainly focused on our eastern and
southeastern counties.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Prevailing wind early in the period will be from the southeast, but
there will be a shift in wind more from the southwest by mid to late
morning as a surface leeside trough pushes east across western
Kansas. Low stratus and/or fog early this morning should remain
north of the HYS terminal, so the TAF will remain VFR flight
category. For the 06Z TAFs, have kept thunderstorms out of the TAF,
but the 12Z TAFs will likely need to introduce some convection to at
least GCK and HYS terminals, and perhaps even LBL and DDC based on
latest forecast trends.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid