100
FXUS63 KDDC 162340
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few t-storms will form along a front this late this afternoon
  and evening, with isolated wind gusts to 60 mph, brief heavy
  rain and marginally severe hail.

- A larger cluster of non-severe t-storms will move into
  western Kansas tonight.

- Hot to very hot weather will develop over the weekend and
  persist for several days and possibly for a week, with 100
  degree readings likely by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A strong shortwave trough traversing the Upper Midwest has
pushed a significant cold front into southwest Kansas this
afternoon. Low clouds persisted early this afternoon near the
Colorado state line. Post frontal upslope flow into Colorado
along with daytime heating will help generate storm clusters
near the traditional topographic features. Given the weak mid
level flow, these storms will be slow to propagate eastward.
However, cold pool generation later in the evening will help
propagate the storms into western Kansas as outflow continuously
generates new convection to the east. Ahead of this storm
cluster, expect a few storms to develop along and front from
Cimarron to Dodge City to Larned by 5 pm. The models have been
consistently developing storms around Larned and then
propagating them southwestward along the boundary. Given the
weak vertical wind shear, hail should be quarter size or less
and a 60 mph wind gust is possible. Will be monitoring for the
possibility of very weak landspout tornadoes along the front.
The front will stall out across Oklahoma Thursday, with cooler
afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s over
southwest Kansas. Given the upslope flow and rain cooled air,
low clouds will persist much of the day; and this will keep
temperatures cooler. Any t-storm activity Thursday afternoon and
evening will likely be south and southwest of Kansas.

Weak upper level troughing will persist across the Desert
Southwest through Sunday, resulting in weak mid level westerlies
across the Rockies. This will cause a capping inversion across
the central high plains, allowing very high dewpoints to
accumulate in a shallow layer. Farther south, deeper vertical
mixing will allow for low level drying. Bottom line is that an
isolated t-storm can`t be ruled out through Sunday given the
potential instability and weak surface convergence. But in
general it will very warm and humid instead of hot and dry,
especially along I-70, with slightly hotter and drier air down
near Liberal and Elkhart.

Monday will be a transition day, with moisture gradually
decreasing; but it could still be quite humid along I-70. By
Tuesday the various ensemble suites develop the mid to upper
level ridge farther north. This would promote deeper vertical
mixing, with slightly drier but hotter air. With the very warm
mid levels and drier air, t-storm chances are very slim (less
than 10%) for Tuesday. Temperatures in the high 90s to 103 will
be common during the afternoons. An extended period of hot to
very hot weather can be expected through next weekend given the
amplified upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the next 2-3 hours
near a surface boundary near Dodge City and Liberal. These
storms may bring wind gusts of 50-60 mph and reduced visibility
from heavy rainfall. The best chance for thunderstorms for all
of southwest Kansas still appears to be likely (>70%) between
03Z and 09Z Thursday as a cluster of storms moves from Colorado
into southwest Kansas. Following these overnight storms...low
clouds (ceilings in the 1000-2500ft AGL) will spread across
southwest Kansas after 06z tonight as a cold front moves south
into Oklahoma and north winds develop. These low clouds are
expected to persist in southwest Kansas until 18Z, with gradual
improvement thereafter. Between 12z and 18z there will be a
30-50% chance that ceilings will briefly fall into the
500-1000ft AGL level.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert