885
FXUS63 KDDC 172208
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool stable air has reduced the risk of severe thunderstorms
  tonight.

- Scattered thunderstorms tonight will produce locally heavy
  rainfall, with flooding potential where soils are saturated.
  Marginally severe hail is possible.

- A rapid intense heatwave is expected late this week, with
  afternoon temperatures near 100 degrees Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

19z surface and upper air observations show cool upslope east to
southeast winds across southwest Kansas.  These winds combining with
a stratus deck from the overnight and mid morning MCS that went
through central Kansas have kept our temperatures in the 70s through
midday.  The morning outflow boundary has made it well into the
Texas panhandle through northern Oklahoma.  A second outflow
boundary has led to convection along the K-96 corridor which is
moving east-southeast.

Tonight given the situation from the previous MCS and ongoing cloud
cover and convection combining with short term models showing the
boundary of warmer air staying mainly along and south of the
Oklahoma border the severe risk has lessened across southwest
Kansas.  With the cooler and stable air the instability values will
have a tough time increasing and any convection will be elevated
pretty much negating any tornado risk.  Short term models continue
to show the best opportunity for rain along the second outflow
boundary which sets up roughly south and east of Dodge City.  With
PWAT values ~1.5 inches we could certainly see some locally heavy
rainfall and some isolated areas of flooding.  Severe threat will be
generally limited to some strong gusty winds around 60 mph mainly
along the Oklahoma border.  With how the airmasses are setup it
looks like the MCS with the 80+ mph wind potential will be moreso in
the Texas panhandle into northern Oklahoma along the frontal
boundary.  A second area of convection will develop in northeast
Colorado and makes its way into western Kansas during the overnight
however as the MCS hits the more stable air we should just see
general thunderstorms with them weakening to ending shortly after
midnight.

Wednesday should stay cooler as north winds and 850 mb temperatures
warming to around 20 (C) should lead to highs in the 80s.

In the long term LREF upper air patterns show a building ridge in
the southeast CONUS with strong southwesterly flow in the central
plains.  This will allow hotter air from the desert southwest to
overspread the region on Friday and Saturday with highs reaching
into the mid to upper 90s. Given the recent rains we should still
have fairly moist dewpoints despite the southwest winds so humidity
values will be higher and could lead to heat index values greater
than 100 degrees especially east of highway 183.   Heat risk across
southwest Kansas is at moderate to major suggesting that any
prolonged exposure to the heat will lead to a higher risk of heat
exhaustion.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Satellite and surface observations at 22z depict widespread MVFR
stratus across SW KS, in a post frontal environment with E/NE
surface winds. The expectation is for these ceilings to
gradually improve to VFR through tonight. Scattered
thunderstorms are likely to develop overnight, 00-12z Wed, but
with confidence very low on placement, and with storms possibly
remaining east of the airports, kept this set of TAFs dry. TAF
convective amendments are possible overnight. Elevated northeast
winds gusting to near 25 kts as of 22z will weaken quickly and
trend to light northwest through tonight. Excellent flying
weather is expected Wednesday with VFR/SKC and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ066-079>081-089-
090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner