038
FXUS63 KDDC 181639
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday and Saturday is forecast to continue to see highs in
  the mid-to-upper 90s with a strong south/southwest winds at
  20-25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

- A strong cold front is expected to pass through the CWA
  Saturday with potentially severe storms ahead of the front and
  benign precipitation behind it through the overnight.

- After the cold front Sunday onward, a pattern shift of a
  cooler (highs in the 70/80s) and wetter regime is forecast
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be relatively unchanged with
the deep synoptic low over the Pacific Northwest slowly trekking
eastward and nudging the massive ridging eastward across the
southeastern CONUS. Another weak upper-level low has moved over
Florida out of the Atlantic Ocean slowing down the high pressure`s
movement. With the depth of the synoptic features, the highs and
lows have associated systems all the way down to the surface with
high pressure in the deep south and a pair of low pressure over
Nevada and South Dakota.

Today will be another hot day warming up well into the 90s and even
potentially flirting with the triple digit barrier in the warmest
parts of SW Kansas today. CAMs continue to have storms clipping
northwest Kansas, but the environment over the forecast area is
significantly less conducive for convection. Very little dynamical
support is present aloft outside of an incredibly subtle upper-level
jet streak. The NAM forecast sounding is just as bleak with CAPE
values below 500 J/kg and sfc-3km shear below 20 KTs. If a storm or
two is able to overcome the cap, it expected to be very weak and sub-
severe with the best chances placed around the Scott City/Garden
City area. With the amount of CAM discrepancies, it is still
uncertain whether any precipitation will fall today. The current
probability for precipitation forecasted is below 10%. Strong
southwest winds are expected to continue today at around 25 mph and
gusts up to 35 mph.

Tomorrow conversely continues to look optimistic for widespread
precipitation chances. After another day in the 90s (and around 100
degrees in the southeastern counties) a strong cold front is
expected to descend from the larger system and sweep across the CWA
in the late morning and through the afternoon. The environment is
considerably more favorable for convective development ahead of the
front tomorrow afternoon. Mid-level CVA should provide help with
ascent with the same forecast soundings placing CAPE around 2000
J/kg with little to no cap. The two primarily limiters on these
storms would be the continued lack of shear (still around 20 KTs)
and lack of upper-level dynamical support. Despite that, with low
level lapse rates forecast around 10 C/km, wind gusts of 60-65 mph
is possible in the strongest storms. Hail can not be ruled out but
is expected to stay very marginal if at all owing to the
aforementioned lack of shear. The linchpin of the forecast is the
timing and placement of the front. Days previous model runs had the
front near the Highway 56 corridor by mid afternoon. The same models
today (with the NAM being the fastest) have it as far as the Highway
54 corridor. This may limit the area for potential severe weather to
just the southeastern 3 or so counties of the CWA. The frontal
position will need monitoring into tomorrow. Tomorrow night, benign
showers are expected across SW Kansas behind the front. Ensembles
have chances from 30-80% with the highest chances in the northern
zones. With the intensity being forecast as relatively low, the
ensemble means for total accumulations only climb to around 0.4"
with most of SW Kansas seeing it closer to the 0.05-0.1" range.

Beyond Saturday with the intense CAA behind the front, a significant
pattern shift is expected transitioning from abnormally hot highs
with dry weather to a wetter more seasonal pattern. Highs next week
are forecast to remain steady around the upper 70-lower 80s which is
right around normal for this time of the year. Every day next week
has some rainfall potential via long-ranged ensembles primarily in
far western Kansas. Current expectation is that the severe chances
past Sunday remain very minimal but temporal uncertainty will need
to decrease before saying so for sure. With the seasonal
temperatures and relative humidities quelling fire weather risk by
staying above 25%, the only weather headlines expected are regarding
the precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF
period. A strong southwest wind is forecast to lead off the TAF
period with winds at around 15-20 KTs and gusts up to 30 KTs. Around
12-14Z, a strong frontal passage and wind shift is expected. After
the passage, winds will be much lighter at around 10 KTs out of the
north/northwest. CAMs continue to have disagreement on convective
potential this afternoon/evening with ensembles giving areas around
GCK at 5-10%. With decreasing trends it was not added to the TAF,
but a stray thundershower can not be completely ruled out,
especially north of the GCK terminal.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ