213
FXUS63 KDDC 312227
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low stratus clouds and periods of drizzle will continue
  through Halloween into Sunday morning .

- Strong south winds Sunday and Monday with warmer temperatures.

- A strong cold front arrives with strong north winds Monday
  night.

- Widespread wind-blown rain Tuesday, with north winds gusting
  50-60 mph.

- Still no freezes expected through at least November 7th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Midday radar imagery depicted widespread light rain across
eastern zones, ahead of one last trailing shortwave. Otherwise
stratus was widespread across all of SW KS, and stratus is
expected to hold through this afternoon, tonight and into Sunday
morning. Once the final exiting shortwave departs this
afternoon, only some patchy drizzle will remain through tonight.
NBM temperatures this afternoon were several degrees too warm in
the stratus and drizzle/wet soils; many location will remain in
the 50s.

Stratus will persist through tonight. Stratus and areas of fog
and/or drizzle will work against radiational cooling, with
temperatures slowly falling through the 50s most of tonight at
most locations. The mild fall continues; the normal sunrise
temperatures for the first morning of November is mid to upper
30s.

Two strong shortwaves from the polar and subtropical jet streams
are consistently forecast by the models to merge into one strong
closed midlevel cyclone over the Great Basin by 6 pm Sunday.
Ridge axis passing overhead 6 am Sunday will move east quickly,
with SWly midlevel flow establishing quickly Sunday afternoon.
South winds will respond rapidly, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts
near 40 mph Sunday afternoon. Despite the improved mixing, and
2-3C of warming at 850 mb, strong moisture advection will keep
the boundary layer saturated, or nearly so, through Sunday
afternoon, with stratus prevailing. As such, coordinated with
neighbors to reduce NBM temperatures 2-3 degrees for Sunday. By
the same token, Sunday night and Monday morning will be
unseasonably mild beneath the strong low level jet, struggling
to below 60 degrees (normal is mid 30s).

Incoming strong trough is modeled to be quite progressive,
reaching the Four Corners 6 am Monday, and near Elkhart 6 pm
Monday. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
accompany a strong low level jet Sunday night/early Monday, and
these NBM pops up to the likely category were accepted. The
cyclone`s dry slot is expected to keep most of SW KS dry for
most of Monday, with elevated strong to southwest winds. Given
some insolation, afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s
look reasonable.

Surface and midlevel cyclones will reach the Medicine Lodge
vicinity by 6 am Tuesday, allowing the strong cold front to
race through SW KS Monday night with intense north winds.
Nocturnal timing will reduce momentum transfer some, but
NBM winds Monday night are too weak. NW winds in the grids
for Garden City at midnight are about 1/2 of the projected
values from the 12z MAV (30 kts sustained, versus 15 kts NBM).
The strongest north winds from this system are expected
immediately after mixing is achieved midmorning to midday
Tuesday, when 850 mb winds near 2k ft AGL are 50-60 mph.
Early Tuesday is most likely when high wind warning criteria
will be achieved, and this wind will be accompanied by
widespread wind-blown rain in the cyclone`s deformation.
NBM pops do look plausible here with the rain early Tuesday,
in the likely to definite category (70-90%). Given the
progressive nature of the parent trough, and the short
residency time, rain amounts Monday night through early Tuesday
should be restricted to less than 1/2 inch for most of
SW KS. Strong northwest winds persist Tuesday, with temperatures
reduced to the 50s.

Weak high pressure ridging arrives Tuesday night, allowing for
much more seasonable temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40
Wednesday morning, but this incoming cool air mass is of Pacific
origin, and will not be cold enough for a widespread frost or
freeze.

Dry quiet pleasant fall weather is expected Wednesday through
Friday, along with temperatures not too far away from early
November normals. The next shortwave trough will likely bring
the next round of rain next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Variable flight conditions are forecast through the forecast period.
Low stratus is expected to persist at variable ceilings through the
forecast period. It is expected to drop into the overnight as some
fog is expected to drop visibilities. How far the visibilities drop
due to the fog is still uncertain with the onset forecast to be
around 8Z. LIFR is forecast for all sites, but VLIFR can not be
ruled out. Some of the fog is expected to clear as the ceilings
raise somewhat around 14Z. Again the extent of how high the ceilings
can recover holds uncertainty at this point, but there is very high
confidence in reduced flight conditions throughout the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...KBJ