121
FXUS63 KDDC 031642
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A marginal risk of severe weather exists this evening. The
  primary hazard will be locally heavy rainfall which may result
  in ponding of water on roadways, especially in poor drainage
  and low lying areas. A few of the stronger storms may also be
  capable of producing isolated gusts of 50 to 60 mph and
  quarter sized hail.

- Storm chances will decrease late this week with only a 20-30%
  chance for storms possible over the weekend period.

- Warmer temperatures return to southwest Kansas this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Satellite and upper air analysis earlier this morning showed a
upper level disturbance/weak MCV moving slowly northward
through the Texas Panhandle toward a nearly stationary front in
southwest Kansas. In addition to this a southeasterly low level
flow was continuing to draw unseasonably high moisture into the
area, with Precipitable water values >95% of normal. Given the
humid air and a lack of any stable air layers to suppress
development, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage across southwest Kansas this after 2pm as the
southern disturbance approaches the area.

The risk for severe weather appears to be decreasing due to
weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates. However, forecast
confidence is high enough yet to remove all possibility given
that the upper wave/weak MCV crossing southwest Kansas early
tonight could locally enhance wind shear. If this occurs then it
may provide enough support for a few isolated storms to produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The main weather hazard early tonight may end up being periods
of locally heavy rainfall and possible water issues. High
precipitable water values, little/no cap and slow moving
thunderstorms supports this chance that locally heavy rainfall
from these storms overnight. Also based on location of where the
axis of higher PWATs and 925-850mb transport vectors through
early tonight the most favorable for these steadier and heavier
showers will be focused near the Oklahoma border and mainly west
of a Larned to Medicine Lodge line. In this area ponding of
water/localized flooding issues will be possible tonight.
Currently I am leaning away from issuing a flood watch product
due to the latest flash flood guidance. Latest 1 hour flash
flood guidance in this area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 inches and 3
hour FFG is greater than 2.5. Currently the highest max 1hr
rainfall rates appear to be near 1.5 inches and the chance for
>1 an hour rainfall rates spotty and ranging from 40-60%.
Marginal flash flood potential but again easily could see some
water issues to be possible in a few of the the poor drainage
area or low lying areas.

As the upper wave and axis of high moisture exit southwest
Kansas tonight, the upper level flow will become more zonal. In
this developing westerly flow there will be multiple shortwave
troughs moving across the region late week and over the upcoming
weekend. On Friday, Southwest Kansas will remain on the
southern periphery of our first main upper level trough. A low
(30% or less) probability for isolated convection will be
possible late Friday near the moisture/instability axis over
central Kansas. The chance of scattered afternoon and evening
storms will persist through the weekend as several more upper
waves cross the Plains. This will result in a low (20-30%)
chance for thunderstorms, especially during the overnight
periods and east of highway 283.

Warmer temperatures are expected to return to southwest Kansas
this weekend. Zonal flow and weak ridging aloft will support lee
trough development, causing 850mb temperatures to climb into
the 20-25C range. High temperatures are expected to climb out
of the 80s and back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR ceilings are expected to return to southwest Kansas this
afternoon as an upper level trough crosses southwest Kansas.
Ceilings will lower into the 3000 to 9000 feet AGL range at
Liberal and Garden City between 21z today and 00z Thursday, with
scattered thunderstorms (less than 30%) becoming possible.
Dodge City can expect similar conditions between 00z and 03z
with Hays trending this way after 03z Thursday. As storms
develop, thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight, and
rainfall may become steadier and heavier, lowering ceilings to
2000 to 3000 feet AGL.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert