783
FXUS63 KDDC 251013
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm later
  today. Areal coverage should generally be less than what we
  have seen recently.

- A dry forecast over the weekend. Temperatures look to trend to
  be near or even above normal.

- Watching for the potential of more monsoonal moisture (and
  perhaps mixed with remnant tropical disturbance moisture) next
  week... This may result in potentially more unsettled weather
  for the next business week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Late evening KDDC WSR-88D shows considerably less showers across
southwest Kansas just before midnight. The shower and storm
activity that impacted us earlier has moved well to the east
across eastern Kansas. With that being said, we are watching the
next slug of showers that are moving across the southern High
Plains. This activity may impact southwest Kansas later in the
morning, although confidence is not high on this. Speaking of
confidence, a general perusal of 00Z CAM data shows considerable
disagreement in shower evolution over the next 18 or so hours.
Despite this uncertainty, examining the atmosphere still shows a
very moist profile. Our 00Z RAOB measured a PWAT of 1.62".
Looking at SPC PWAT climo, this is still well above the daily
max of 1.34". The normal PWAT for this time of year is at a much
lower 0.77". Considering this, it should still be easy for the
atmosphere to squeeze out shower activity. Therefore, putting
this all together, will continue with the fairly high pops for
this afternoon. A mid level trof will be in close proximity to
western Kansas this afternoon, so logic would state that there
should be an west to east pop gradient, as this mid level
feature start to clear the FA. Indeed, the NBM pops are
advertising this, which looks meteorologically cohesive. The
main threat with this activity is moderate to heavy rainfall.
WPC has us in a marginal risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook
for today, with the higher probabilities shifted east across the
FA. Otherwise, outside of this widely scattered activity, a
generally drier forecast is expected for the remaining FA.

Both deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts
are forecasting shortwave ridging developing across the greater
region over the weekend. This would support the notion of a
drier and warmer forecast. Highs for Saturday and Sunday should
peak in the lower to mid 80s. Lows should be fairly mild, and
likely to be above normal with values only bottoming out in the
mix of 50s to 60s.

By Monday, we should be in between weather systems with the main
focus this morning will be afternoon convection and fog/low
clouds this morning. Highest probability for early morning
stratus with ceilings below 500 ft AGL will be in the Hays and
Garden City area through at least 15z with ceilings then
gradually improving through 18z. Low clouds will also being
possible in the Liberal and Dodge City area with cloud bases
forecast to be between 500 and 1000ft AGL. Areas of fog this
morning will reduce visibilities as low as 2 miles at times.
Ceilings will gradually improve through the day with MVFR
conditions likely this afternoon and VFR conditions being
possible by late day/early evening. Thunderstorm chances will
improve this afternoon across southwest Kansas with the best
opportunity for the steadier and heavier storms occurring at
Liberal and Garden City between 18z and 23z today and then Dodge
City between 21z today and 02z Saturday. he shortwave ridge
well east of the region. Long range models and their ensemble
counterparts then show for the possibility of a large trof to
start to carve out across the southwestern United States. In
addition, remnant tropical disturbance moisture might mix in,
further complicating the synoptic picture. Examining both GEFs
and ENS output, it is very unclear how much these two
disturbances will interact with each other and where exactly the
storm track will be. The NBM does continue to ramp up pops over
the middle portion of the business week to account for the
possibility of more unsettled weather. This is something to
watch as there is essentially very little agreement in the
ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Main focus this morning will be afternoon convection and fog/low
clouds this morning. Highest probability for early morning
stratus with ceilings at or below 600 ft AGL will be in the
Hays and Garden City area through at least 15z with ceilings
then gradually improving through 18z. Scattered low clouds will
also being possible in the Liberal and Dodge City areas with
cloud bases forecast to be between 500 and 1000ft AGL at times.
Areas of fog this morning will reduce visibilities as low as
1/2 miles at times in the Garden City area while areas of fog
elsewhere is expected to only reduce visibilities to 2-3 miles.
Ceilings will gradually improve this morning as fog dissipates
with VFR conditions being possible during the afternoon.
Thunderstorm chances will improve this afternoon across
southwest Kansas with the best opportunity for thunderstorms
occurring at Liberal and Garden City between 18z and 23z today
and then Dodge City between 21z today and 02z Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert