882
FXUS63 KDDC 021024
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
524 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk for Tuesday and Wednesday mainly along and
west of highway 283 for damaging winds and hail

- Storms could contain localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding can`t be ruled out

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

05z synopsis shows a departing MCS moving through south central
Kansas with another area of mid level lift in northwest Kansas which
is producing a second round of scattered storms.  The mid and upper
level flow continues to be influenced by a stationary upper low on
the CONUS-Canadian border around Montana.  This is leading to
southwest flow aloft and a series of shortwaves moving from the
desert southwest through the central plains.

For today we should continue to see lingering convection mainly in
our northeast zones from WaKeeney to Pratt as an area of 700 mb lift
with a baroclinic zone and shortwave will work with marginal
instability to keep storms around.  These storms should be sub
severe and keep the clouds in place through the morning hours.  In
far southwest Kansas we should receive more sunshine through the day
and highs should reach into the 90s.  HRRR and RRFS models show
rapid destabilization along a residual outflow boundary along the
Kansas-Oklahoma border by late afternoon.  Surface CAPE values
should reach into the 2000 J/kg range and a 700 mb shortwave moves
in from the southwest to provide the lift for a complex of storms to
develop along the Kansas-Colorado border.  850 mb winds will
increase by late in the day and 0-6 km bulk shear values will be in
the 30-40 kt range which will support large hail initially.  As the
thunderstorm complex grows upscale the damaging wind threat will
increase.   The greatest probability of severe weather looks to be
roughly between the US-160 corridor and the Oklahoma border.  The
instability in our eastern zones will depend on how quickly the
clouds clear from the morning convection and how much sun we can
get.   Storms should have decent PW values to work with (around 1.5
inch) and with weak flow in the mid levels storm motion should be
slower.  This could lead to localized heavy rain in far southwest
Kansas.


Wednesday will have a similar setup to Tuesday as lingering morning
convection should keep clouds in place through the late morning and
then destabilization with peaks of sun should occur in the late
afternoon.  NAM and RAP models have a 700 mb shortwave entering from
southeast Colorado in the late afternoon and another MCS developing
across southwest Kansas.  Main threats will be large hail, damaging
winds, and heavy rain.

Long term ensembles keep the mid and upper level winds out of the
southwest through the end of the week and an upper low possible this
weekend.  This will keep more chances of rain and storms in the
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Mid level clouds will continue to be present throughout the day
with some breaks in the clouds. Winds will generally be from the
southeast.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42