198
FXUS63 KDDC 300712
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
212 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) again today.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures likely this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

WV imagery indicates extremely weak ridging aloft situated across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low
pressure is edging east through northwest Kansas with an attendant
frontal boundary extending south-southwest into extreme southeast
Colorado.

Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) continue today into tonight as the
SREF indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough transitioning
east through the high plains of eastern Colorado into southwest
Nebraska/western Kansas early in the period. Ahead of the
approaching shortwave, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will
continue to reinforce a moist air mass across the region with
surface dewpoints holding well up into the 60s(F), providing modest
instability with MLCAPE values upward of only 1000 J/kg as lingering
cloud cover hinders daytime heating. Meanwhile, surface low pressure
in northwest Kansas will push farther east with an attendant frontal
boundary slowly sweeping through southwest Kansas into central Kansas
this afternoon into the evening. As a result, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to redevelop later today as a series of H5 vort maxima
ahead of an approaching +70kt jet core kick through western Kansas,
interacting with the aforementioned weak frontal boundary. The best
chance for storms will be across central Kansas where the HREF paints
a 30-50% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by late
afternoon with that probability shifting southeast into south central
Kansas by late evening. Drier conditions are forecast Sunday as the
upper level shortwave pushes farther east.

Temperatures are forecast to remain below the seasonal average today
as increased cloud cover and lingering/redeveloping showers and
thunderstorms hinder climbing highs this afternoon while H85
temperatures hover in the mid/upper teens(C). With the HREF
indicating a 70-80% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F in
central Kansas to a 80-90% probability of topping 75F in extreme
southwest Kansas, look for widespread afternoon highs generally
in the 70s(F) with near 80F possible out near the Colorado line.
Although little change to the general air mass is expected Sunday
under the influence of weak north-northeasterlies, decreased cloud
cover may allow a slight bump up in temperatures with highs in the
mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 80s(F) in extreme
southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

An area of rain showers will track southeast through portions of
southwest Kansas into south central Kansas overnight, potentially
affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites through daybreak.
Additionally, low level stratus is forecast to develop within a
light southeasterly upslope flow and increased relative humidity
later this morning, resulting in potential MVFR cigs in vicinity
of all TAF sites initially, then eventually possible IFR cigs
toward daybreak. Areas of fog development will also be possible,
increasing the potential for MVFR vsbys and isolated IFR vsbys
generally after 10-12Z. Light south-southeast winds overnight
will become more variable generally after 13-15Z as a weak
frontal boundary associated with a surface low pushes east
through western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson