563
FXUS63 KDDC 131600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dramatically cooler Monday with increasing clouds and rain
  showers.

- Scattered rain showers continue Monday night and early Tuesday
  as a warm front lifts north across SW KS.

- Decreasing clouds and warmer Tuesday afternoon.

- Windy and warmer Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Today will be dramatically cooler with increasing cloudiness
and lowered ceiling. Cloud ceilings will gradually lower
through the day as warm advection aloft overruns the invading
much cooler air mass. Northeast winds will trend easterly and
slowly decrease through the afternoon as high pressure builds
into the area. Clouds and cold advection will reduce afternoon
temperatures to the lower to mid 60s. A few areas may not make
it out of the 50s. Given the developing overrunning pattern,
scattered rain showers are expected to develop late afternoon
across south central Kansas then spread northeastward across the
remainder of the CWA this evening. Cloudy skies continue
overnight with lows dipping into the 50s with light easterly
winds.

Flow amplifies significantly Tuesday, as a strong midlevel
cyclone comes onshore in California, forcing high pressure
aloft to strengthen over Texas. Improving weather will result
Tuesday, with south winds returning, decreasing clouds, and
afternoon temperatures in the 70s. Additional warming into the
lower 80s, and stronger south winds, are expected Wednesday.
Great Basin cyclone will make eastward progress, with stronger
lee cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado, resulting in south
winds gusting near 40 mph Wednesday afternoon.

Model guidance then depicts the Great Basin cyclone ejecting
into the Rockies Thursday. Above normal temperatures and strong
south winds will continue as a result. With much of the energy
from this trough ejecting well to the north into Canada through
Friday, models are trending to a weaker first cold front passage
on Friday. A much stronger secondary cold front appears timed
for Saturday, as additional jet energy dives into the northern
plains. Rainfall prospects with Saturday`s cold front appear
limited with scant moisture, but much colder morning lows are
expected by next Sunday, from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

High confidence flight categories will degrade to IFR/LIFR this
TAF period at all airports, with widespread stratus, scattered
rain showers, and reduced visibility in BR. Ceilings will
gradually lower this afternoon through tonight. Radar at 16z Mon
showed scattered showers southeast of the airports; shower
coverage is expected to increase through 12z Tue as a warm front
pushes north across SW KS. With little to no instablity, no
thunder is expected. Light NE winds will prevail much of the
period, trend E/SEly Tuesday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner