613
FXUS63 KDDC 162202
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A thunderstorm complex may produce strong to damaging winds
  across northern counties early Tuesday morning.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and
  evening. Some of these will be severe, producing large hail
  and damaging winds. High-end hail and/or wind is possible
  primarily northeast of Dodge City.

- Temporarily a bit cooler, in the 80s, Wednesday.

- An intense heat wave by late week, with afternoon temperatures
  soaring to near 100 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

19Z surface and upper air observations show a 595 dm high centered
over the desert southwest with west to northwest flow in the central
and northern plains.  A 700 mb shortwave over eastern Colorado is
leading to a 1003 mb surface low in northeast Colorado.  The warm
frontal boundary is located just north of the Kansas-Nebraska border
and the dryline is just west of the Kansas-Colorado state line.

Tonight the main weather feature of interest will be a MCS that is
expected to form along the I-80 corridor in Nebraska and move
south and east into northwest and north central Kansas during
the late evening and early overnight hours. The CAMs vary quite
a bit in the solutions both timing and location wise however a
common theme is that for much of southwest Kansas with the warm
mid levels (700 mb temps at 15-17 (C)) should provide a pretty
stout CAP that will inhibit thunderstorm development. Closer to
the frontal boundary in Nebraska the upper level forcing should
be much better and with cooler mid level temperatures the MCS
should have ample CAPE to develop storms that will quickly
become linear. The line of storm should ride around the warm mid
level in southwest Kansas into the cooler mid levels in central
Kansas. This means the greatest POPs will be along the I-70
corridor around 10pm to midnight and then into central Kansas
during the early morning hours on Tuesday. Greatest threat will
be wind gusts up to 70 mph and brief heavy rain.

Tuesday the main forecasting challenge will be where the residual
outflow boundary from the overnight MCS sets up during the day
as well as the timing of a strong cold front that moves in from
southern Nebraska. Short term models suggest the outflow frontal
boundary setting up roughly along the highway 56 corridor by
late afternoon Tuesday. Strong warming along and south of the
outflow boundary should provide a stout cap however with
slightly cooler 700 mb temperatures north this should provide a
weaker cap and a better opportunity for thunderstorm
development. Around the late afternoon a 700 mb shortwave enters
into north central Kansas and this should provide the forcing
for thunderstorm development that will quickly grow into a MCS
along the outflow frontal boundary mainly along and east of
highway 283. With DCAPE values in the 1400- 1500 J/kg range and
0-6 km shear values 35-40 kts the main severe weather threat
will be downburst winds 70 mph or greater and hail larger than 2
inches in diameter. This could be a significantly impactful
severe weather event especially along and north of a Dodge City
to Pratt line. Another MCS is forecast to develop along the cold
front in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska with the line
moving through southwest Kansas during the overnight hours.

Wednesday should be cooler and drier as post frontal temperatures
should reach into the mid to upper 80s.  Afterwards a summer like
warmup will last through the weekend with the LREF upper level
pattern showing a large ridge over the central and southern plains.
NBM MaxT probabilities of >100 degrees are at 60-90% across
southwest Kansas suggesting that we have higher confidence in heat
impacts for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR will continue to prevail through this TAF period. Scattered
cumulus present at 22z will dissipate this evening. Models
suggest a thunderstorm complex originating in Nebraska/NW KS
will impact HYS during the 06-12z Tue time range. Included a
convective TEMPO group for this set of TAFs for HYS, but
LBL/GCK/DDC are expected to remain dry. South/southeast winds
gusting to near 30 kts currently will only marginally diminish
through sunset, with elevated southeast winds overnight outside
of any convection. A cold front is expected to provide a
northeast wind shift to the airports daytime Tuesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner