262
FXUS63 KDDC 031025
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
525 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy skies, afternoon highs in the 80s, and mainly
  sub-severe thunderstorms are expected today.

- Another day of cloudy skies and highs in the 80s on Thursday,
  with thunderstorms possible favoring our eastern zones.

- Upper level pattern will amplify over the weekend, bringing
  warmer temperatures and continued precipitation chances
  through the long term.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal upper level ridging is in place from the
southern/central plains northeastward into the Great Lakes region,
with a strong trough skirting the MT/Canada border. At the surface,
high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is yielding southeasterly
winds across southwest KS. Daytime Wednesday, short range guidance
indicates the aforementioned synoptic features will drift eastward
while the surface ridge slides southeast. The combination of moist
upslope flow and a weak vorticity max ejecting onto the central
plains should keep skies mostly cloudy, and afternoon highs will
hold in the low to mid 80s. By mid-afternoon, all HREF members
suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop over our area within a
weakly sheared but unstable environment. The bulk of this activity
will be sub-severe, but a few marginally severe hailstones and/or
wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts.
Convection may persist into the overnight period as well, supported
by a 30-40kt low-level jet, but should gradually decay as the
boundary layer stabilizes. Otherwise, Thursday morning lows will
drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Daytime Thursday, short range ensembles agree southwest KS will be
between modest upper level zonal flow over the northern plains and a
weak upper level trough over the southern plains. Persistent cloud
cover should once again temper solar insolation enough to keep
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for most, with some
locations near the KS/CO reaching the low 90s where less cloud cover
is expected. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is possible,
favoring our eastern zones, however weak deep-layer shear will
render any severe threat isolated.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree
the synoptic pattern will amplify as troughing takes shape over the
western CONUS upstream of ridging along and east of the Rockies.
This pattern will favor afternoon highs increasing into the 90s
across the central plains as well as non-zero precipitation chances
nearly every day, favoring our eastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An isolated thunderstorm may move through the DDC to HYS
terminals over the next few hours lowering ceilings. Otherwise
expect low clouds throughout the day with some breaks in the
afternoon. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction,
gusting to over 20 knots late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Hovorka_42