600
FXUS63 KDDC 022234
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
434 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm risk across the southeast zones for a few
  hours Monday afternoon/evening. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph and
  marginally severe hail are possible.

- A strong cold front will race through SW KS Monday evening,
  followed by intense northwest winds through Tuesday morning.
  Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are expected through Tuesday morning.

- Widespread heavy rain expected Monday night through early
  Tuesday western through northern zones, where 1-2 inches of
  rain is probable.

- Intense northwest winds early Tuesday gradually diminish
  daylight Tuesday with much cooler temperatures.

- Much more seasonably cold 30s expected Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Midday satellite imagery clearly defined a strong closed
midlevel cyclone over northeast New Mexico. The associated dry
slot has temporarily cleared the sky over SW KS, with stratus
lingering over eastern zones. Mesoanalysis outlined an axis of
moderate instability, with CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, across
the eastern zones, colocated with bulk shear of 30-40 kts.
This environment will support supercell structures upon
initiation across the southeast zones 3-6 pm. Hail of 1-2 inches
in diameter and wind gusts of 50-70 mph are possible from the
strongest storms. Given favorable low level shear/SRH and low
LCL heights, a tornado risk is apparent. Much of this threat
should manifest east of the DDC CWA, but can`t rule out
tornadoes across the southeast zones for 1-2 hours before
sunset. Simultaneously, a strong deformation zone of moderate to
heavy rain will blossom across the western/northwest zones this
afternoon/evening, in response to 560 dm cyclone ejecting into
the southeast zones by midnight. After about sunset, the
associated intense cold front will race through SW KS, reaching
the central zones about 6 pm, and exiting the southeast zones
about 3 am, behind the departing surface/midlevel cyclones.
Intense northwest winds are expected tonight through Tuesday
morning. NBM guidance has increased some, but is still several
knots lower than the strongest guidance. Gusts over 50 mph will
be common tonight through Tuesday midday, with the strongest
winds tied to the preferred US 83 corridor. Most models show
850 mb winds flirting with about 50 kts (58 mph) at about 2k
ft, enough to support high wind warning criteria gusts, given
sufficient mixing through the nocturnal boundary layer. A short
fuse high wind warning may still be issued; it is marginal, but
models are notorious for underestimating deformation winds in
departing cyclones in SW KS.

Widespread soaking rain is expected tonight through Tuesday
morning in the deformation zone, across western to northwest
zones. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch will be common in
these zones, with 12z NAM suggesting amounts in excess of
2 inches where the deformation zone can pivot in place the
longest (roughly Garden City to Hays). NBM has correctly
trended pops up into the definite category (90-100%) across
these zones. After sunset, most instability is expected to be
eliminated, as such there is very little thunder in the forecast
tonight through Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will remind us that it is November, with strong
northwest winds and dramatically cooler temperatures. Models
reduce 850 temperatures to the +4-6C range, and along with
lingering stratus through midday, temperatures will struggle
into the 50s. NBM continues to correctly trend downward through
the mid 50s Tuesday. Winds will diminish through the day, but
wind chill indices will be near 30 Tuesday morning.

Strong radiational cooling is forecast Tuesday night through
sunrise Wednesday, with light winds, a clear sky and a much more
seasonably colder air mass. Expect 30s to be common sunrise
Wednesday, which sounds cold, but is perfectly normal for early
November. Air does not look sufficiently cold for a killing
freeze, although some patchy frost is probable northwest zones.

A passing weak shortwave should generate some limited scattered
showers late Wednesday/early Thursday. This system will be
moisture starved with no impacts and QPF limited.

Friday through Sunday, the synoptic pattern returns to a quiet
dry regime, with troughing deepening over the Great Lakes and
ridging over the Desert Southwest. The resulting northwest flow
will force gulf moisture away from SW KS, with highest
confidence of a dry forecast through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A strong cold front will cross southwest Kansas early tonight.
As this cold front passes the gusty south winds will shift to
the northwest and increase to near 25 knots with gusts in excess
of 35 to near 40 knots possible overnight and Tuesday. Also
following this cold front an area of low clouds, mainly in the
500 to 1500ft AGL, will spread across the area along with
scattered thunderstorms. The thunderstorms and low clouds will
gradually erode from west to east after 15z Tuesday with VFR
condition developing after 18z Tuesday. The gusty northwest
winds however will continue through late day before beginning to
taper off.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert