140
FXUS63 KDDC 161005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today for
  most of southwest Kansas. Main hazards will will be wind gusts
  greater than 60 mph, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

- A cold front crossing southwest Kansas tonight will bring a
  brief break in the heat. Highs today will be in the mid to
  upper 90s while on Thursday the highs are only expected in the
  upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Weekend warmup returns to southwest Kansas with highs around
  100 degrees being possible (greater than 70%) Monday and
  Tuesday south and east of Dodge City. Heat index of 100 to
  near 105 also possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A cluster of thunderstorms across Nebraska before midnight was
located ahead of an upper level trough/400 to 200mb PVU. As of
2am Wednesday these storms were moving southeast across central
Kansas along a mid level baroclinic zone as the upper level
trough moves across the Central Plains. As this upper wave
moves into Central Kansas/Central Nebraska during the predawn
hours a surface cold front is forecast to move into southwest
Kansas where it will become nearly stationary. This surface
boundary location this afternoon will not only be key to where
the warmest temperatures will be located later today, but it
will also play an important role in the potential for afternoon
convection.

Today will be another hot day across south central and
southwest Kansas with highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday
(Tuesday). This is due to slightly warmer 850-700mb
temperatures forecast south of a cold front that will be located
between Hays and the Garden City/Dodge City areas this
afternoon. With surface dewpoint in the mid to upper 60s south
of this surface boundary the heat index values as high as
100-103 degrees will be possible, especially east of Hays to
Dodge City to Liberal line.

There will also be a chance for a few afternoon thunderstorms
(20-30% chance) near a surface boundary given improving 0-1km
frontogenesis along this surface boundary late day, dewpoints in
the 60s, and afternoon heating. Should afternoon storms develop
the potential for wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along with
isolated hail will be possible from the strongest storms. The
storm prediction center has a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms for most of southwest Kansas given this potential.

While there is a 20-30% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, the
better chance for thunderstorms will be tonight (60-80%) as a
shortwave trough exits the Rockies and moves into the West
Central High Plains. These storms will cross southwest Kansas
overnight and a some of these storms will be capable of
producing localized heavy rainfall along with strong gusty
winds.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Thursday as the cold front moves south into Oklahoma. This,
along with mostly cloudy skies, will provide a break from the
recent heat, with highs 15-20 degrees cooler than Wednesday.
This cool down however will be brief given that the ensemble
clusters show good agreement for a westerly flow to develop over
the Western and Central United States from the weekend into
early next week, as a flat 500mb high over the southeast U.S.
retrogrades westward towards Texas. Warming 850mb temperatures
and climatological percentiles of 90 to 97.5 from the
ECMWF/NAEFS also strongly suggest (greater than a 70% chance)
highs will rebound into the upper 90s by early next week, with
some areas potentially reaching 100 degrees. The NBM currently
indicates a 60-80% chance of highs exceeding 100 degrees on
Monday and Tuesday east of Highway 283, with heat index values
between 102 and 105.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Main focus this morning will be on chance for thunderstorms
today and early tonight followed by low clouds (IFR conditions)
spreading into southwest Kansas after midnight behind a cold
frontal passage.

A stalled surface boundary across southwest Kansas will be the
primary forcing mechanism for afternoon thunderstorms developing
after 2 PM. Short term models are coming into better agreement
that this boundary will likely be located south of Hays, between
Dodge City and Garden City, by late today. This results in a
30% chance of thunderstorms at these TAF sites this afternoon. A
higher chance (60-80%) of thunderstorms is expected across all
of southwest Kansas after 00Z Thursday. This is due to an upper
level trough exiting the Rockies and crossing western Kansas.
BUFR soundings, HREF ceiling probabilities, and LAMP guidance
all indicate VFR conditions today, with VFR ceilings developing
this afternoon (9000 to 15000ft AGL). Ceilings are expected to
lower to 2500 to 4000 ft AGL after 00Z Thursday. After 06Z there
is a greater than 60% chance of ceilings falling below 1000 ft
AGL as gusty north winds develop behind a cold frontal passage.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert